估计的SARS-CoV-2从废水中传播的动力学是无偏的,并且对差异脱落具有稳健性

IF 15.7 1区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
David Dreifuss, Jana S. Huisman, Johannes C. Rusch, Lea Caduff, Pravin Ganesanandamoorthy, Alexander J. Devaux, Charles Gan, Tanja Stadler, Tamar Kohn, Christoph Ort, Niko Beerenwinkel, Timothy R. Julian
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2019冠状病毒病大流行加速了基于废水的流行病学的发展和采用。废水样本可以为检测和评估SARS-CoV-2变体在社区中的传播以及估计病毒变体的选择优势等重要流行病学参数提供基因组信息。然而,尽管取得了成功,但从废水中提取的流行病学数据存在潜在的偏差。特别值得关注的是脱落剖面,它可以影响废水中真实病毒发病率和病毒载量之间的关系。变异之间脱落的变化可能使废水负荷和临床试验数据之间的既定关系脱钩。利用数学建模、模拟和瑞士监测数据,我们证明了变异选择优势的估计不受脱落谱的影响。我们表明,在广泛的假设范围内,它们对变体之间的脱落差异具有鲁棒性,并确定了这种鲁棒性可能崩溃的特定条件。此外,我们证明了脱落的差异只会短暂地影响有效繁殖数的估计。因此,从废水中提取的选择性优势和繁殖数量的估计保持了其优于传统临床数据的优势,即使变体之间的脱落存在差异。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Estimated transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants from wastewater are unbiased and robust to differential shedding

Estimated transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants from wastewater are unbiased and robust to differential shedding

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the development and adoption of wastewater-based epidemiology. Wastewater samples can provide genomic information for detecting and assessing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants in communities and for estimating important epidemiological parameters such as the selection advantage of a viral variant. However, despite demonstrated successes, epidemiological data derived from wastewater suffers from potential biases. Of particular concern are shedding profiles, which can affect the relationship between true viral incidence and viral loads in wastewater. Changes in shedding between variants may decouple the established relationship between wastewater loads and clinical test data. Using mathematical modeling, simulations, and Swiss surveillance data, we demonstrate that estimates of the selection advantage of a variant are not biased by shedding profiles. We show that they are robust to differences in shedding between variants under a wide range of assumptions, and identify specific conditions under which this robustness may break down. Additionally, we demonstrate that differences in shedding only briefly affect estimates of the effective reproduction number. Thus, estimates of selective advantage and reproduction numbers derived from wastewater maintain their advantages over traditional clinical data, even when there are differences in shedding among variants.

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来源期刊
Nature Communications
Nature Communications Biological Science Disciplines-
CiteScore
24.90
自引率
2.40%
发文量
6928
审稿时长
3.7 months
期刊介绍: Nature Communications, an open-access journal, publishes high-quality research spanning all areas of the natural sciences. Papers featured in the journal showcase significant advances relevant to specialists in each respective field. With a 2-year impact factor of 16.6 (2022) and a median time of 8 days from submission to the first editorial decision, Nature Communications is committed to rapid dissemination of research findings. As a multidisciplinary journal, it welcomes contributions from biological, health, physical, chemical, Earth, social, mathematical, applied, and engineering sciences, aiming to highlight important breakthroughs within each domain.
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