David Dreifuss, Jana S. Huisman, Johannes C. Rusch, Lea Caduff, Pravin Ganesanandamoorthy, Alexander J. Devaux, Charles Gan, Tanja Stadler, Tamar Kohn, Christoph Ort, Niko Beerenwinkel, Timothy R. Julian
{"title":"估计的SARS-CoV-2从废水中传播的动力学是无偏的,并且对差异脱落具有稳健性","authors":"David Dreifuss, Jana S. Huisman, Johannes C. Rusch, Lea Caduff, Pravin Ganesanandamoorthy, Alexander J. Devaux, Charles Gan, Tanja Stadler, Tamar Kohn, Christoph Ort, Niko Beerenwinkel, Timothy R. Julian","doi":"10.1038/s41467-025-62790-y","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the development and adoption of wastewater-based epidemiology. Wastewater samples can provide genomic information for detecting and assessing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants in communities and for estimating important epidemiological parameters such as the selection advantage of a viral variant. However, despite demonstrated successes, epidemiological data derived from wastewater suffers from potential biases. Of particular concern are shedding profiles, which can affect the relationship between true viral incidence and viral loads in wastewater. Changes in shedding between variants may decouple the established relationship between wastewater loads and clinical test data. Using mathematical modeling, simulations, and Swiss surveillance data, we demonstrate that estimates of the selection advantage of a variant are not biased by shedding profiles. We show that they are robust to differences in shedding between variants under a wide range of assumptions, and identify specific conditions under which this robustness may break down. Additionally, we demonstrate that differences in shedding only briefly affect estimates of the effective reproduction number. Thus, estimates of selective advantage and reproduction numbers derived from wastewater maintain their advantages over traditional clinical data, even when there are differences in shedding among variants.</p>","PeriodicalId":19066,"journal":{"name":"Nature Communications","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":15.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Estimated transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants from wastewater are unbiased and robust to differential shedding\",\"authors\":\"David Dreifuss, Jana S. Huisman, Johannes C. Rusch, Lea Caduff, Pravin Ganesanandamoorthy, Alexander J. Devaux, Charles Gan, Tanja Stadler, Tamar Kohn, Christoph Ort, Niko Beerenwinkel, Timothy R. Julian\",\"doi\":\"10.1038/s41467-025-62790-y\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the development and adoption of wastewater-based epidemiology. Wastewater samples can provide genomic information for detecting and assessing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants in communities and for estimating important epidemiological parameters such as the selection advantage of a viral variant. However, despite demonstrated successes, epidemiological data derived from wastewater suffers from potential biases. Of particular concern are shedding profiles, which can affect the relationship between true viral incidence and viral loads in wastewater. Changes in shedding between variants may decouple the established relationship between wastewater loads and clinical test data. Using mathematical modeling, simulations, and Swiss surveillance data, we demonstrate that estimates of the selection advantage of a variant are not biased by shedding profiles. We show that they are robust to differences in shedding between variants under a wide range of assumptions, and identify specific conditions under which this robustness may break down. Additionally, we demonstrate that differences in shedding only briefly affect estimates of the effective reproduction number. Thus, estimates of selective advantage and reproduction numbers derived from wastewater maintain their advantages over traditional clinical data, even when there are differences in shedding among variants.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19066,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Nature Communications\",\"volume\":\"3 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":15.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-08-12\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Nature Communications\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"103\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62790-y\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"综合性期刊\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Nature Communications","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62790-y","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Estimated transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants from wastewater are unbiased and robust to differential shedding
The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the development and adoption of wastewater-based epidemiology. Wastewater samples can provide genomic information for detecting and assessing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants in communities and for estimating important epidemiological parameters such as the selection advantage of a viral variant. However, despite demonstrated successes, epidemiological data derived from wastewater suffers from potential biases. Of particular concern are shedding profiles, which can affect the relationship between true viral incidence and viral loads in wastewater. Changes in shedding between variants may decouple the established relationship between wastewater loads and clinical test data. Using mathematical modeling, simulations, and Swiss surveillance data, we demonstrate that estimates of the selection advantage of a variant are not biased by shedding profiles. We show that they are robust to differences in shedding between variants under a wide range of assumptions, and identify specific conditions under which this robustness may break down. Additionally, we demonstrate that differences in shedding only briefly affect estimates of the effective reproduction number. Thus, estimates of selective advantage and reproduction numbers derived from wastewater maintain their advantages over traditional clinical data, even when there are differences in shedding among variants.
期刊介绍:
Nature Communications, an open-access journal, publishes high-quality research spanning all areas of the natural sciences. Papers featured in the journal showcase significant advances relevant to specialists in each respective field. With a 2-year impact factor of 16.6 (2022) and a median time of 8 days from submission to the first editorial decision, Nature Communications is committed to rapid dissemination of research findings. As a multidisciplinary journal, it welcomes contributions from biological, health, physical, chemical, Earth, social, mathematical, applied, and engineering sciences, aiming to highlight important breakthroughs within each domain.