Global, regional, and national burden of periodontal diseases from 1990 to 2021 and predictions to 2040: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.

Background: Periodontal diseases are one of the most prevalent oral diseases globally, with increasing incidence rates in recent years. This study aims to analyze the global burden and epidemiological trends of periodontal diseases from 1990 to 2021, and to forecast trends through 2040.

Methods: Data on incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of periodontal diseases were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021. The analysis evaluated the global, regional, and national burden of periodontal diseases, conducted a decomposition analysis based on population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes, and examined the association between the sociodemographic index (SDI) and disease burden, and projected trends through 2040.

Results: In 2021, global estimates indicated 89,613,534 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 79,069,091-101,005,642) incident cases, 1,066,953,744 (95% UI: 896,546,186-1,234,839,287) prevalent cases, and 6,903,284 (95% UI: 2,772,284-14,106,182) DALYs due to periodontal diseases. South Asia demonstrated the highest number and age-standardized rates (ASR) of incidence, prevalence, and DALYs. Between 1990 and 2021, the ASR of prevalence and DALYs increased slightly, while the ASR of incidence remained stable worldwide. Population growth and aging were the primary contributors to changes in disease burden. A significant negative correlation was observed between the SDI and the periodontal diseases burden. Projections from 2022 to 2040 indicate annual increases in both the number and ASR of incidence, prevalence, and DALYs for periodontal diseases.

Conclusions: Periodontal diseases remain a substantial global health challenge, characterized by rising incidence, prevalence, and DALYs. These findings underscore the urgent need to implement effective prevention strategies and integrate oral health services into primary care, particularly in regions with low to middle SDI, to reduce the escalating burden.