Ketogenic Diet, Serum Ketone Bodies and Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease in Patients With Diabetic Kidney Disease: A Multi-Cohort Study

Aim

This study aims to explore the effect of the ketogenic diet (KD) on the occurrence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and the longitudinal relationship between circulating β-hydroxybutyrate (β-OHB) and kidney outcomes.

Methods

We used the dietary ketogenic ratio (DKR) to estimate the nutritional ketosis probability of KD and analyzed the association with ESRD using NHANES cross-sectional data by Spearman correlation coefficient and multivariate logistic regression model. We also used the Kaplan–Meier method, Cox regression analysis, and restricted cubic splines (RCS) to analyze the relationship between circulating β-OHB and renal outcomes in the T2DM-DKD longitudinal cohort of West China Hospital. Mendelian randomization (MR) was also employed to evaluate potential causal associations.

Results

The cross-sectional analysis revealed that non-ESRD patients had significantly higher baseline age, BMI, serum albumin, and DKR values, with a weak negative correlation between DKR and serum creatinine (ρ = −0.072, p = 0.011). Logistic regression consistently indicated a reduced ESRD prevalence in higher DKR quartiles. In the longitudinal study, elevated β-OHB levels were associated with improved renal survival and a lower risk of ESRD, with RCS analysis identifying the lowest risk at approximately 0.25 mmol/L. MR analyses supported these findings, showing inverse correlations between genetically predicted β-OHB and creatinine (p = 0.007) and cystatin c (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

These findings suggest that KD may be associated with a lower incidence of ESRD in DKD patients, with elevated β-OHB levels independently associated with a reduced risk of ESRD, warranting further research to confirm causality and elucidate underlying mechanisms.