黄河流域复杂多目标系统的驱动响应与协同竞争关系

IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Science of the Total Environment Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-08 DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180222
Ruimin Liu, Anping Zhang, Yue Wang, Yue Liu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

有效的流域管理需要平衡调沙、生态保护和经济发展。然而,这些目标对油藏作业的非线性和空间非均质响应仍然知之甚少。为了解决这一问题,本文开发了一种新的集成框架,将基于层次分析法(AHP)的多目标函数、用于优化的非支配排序遗传算法II (NSGA-II)和Copula函数分析相结合。这种方法能够系统地评估不同水文条件和操作方案下多个目标之间的协同竞争动态。结果表明,流域泥沙和经济效益分别平均增加18.7%和24.1%,中下游地区增幅最大。生态效益呈现“倒u型”响应,超过某一阈值后,生态效益下降幅度高达36.5%,并在下游日益明显。在干旱年份,泥沙效益增加1.5 ~ 2.4倍,生态经济竞争加剧10倍。上游梯级作业促进了泥沙经济协同效应,下游调控则缓解了生态经济冲突。这些发现为复杂、多目标流域系统的适应性、弹性水资源管理提供了定量证据和理论支持。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Driving responses and synergistic-competitive relationships within the complex multi-objective system of the Yellow River Basin.

Effective river basin management demands balancing sediment regulation, ecological protection, and economic development. However, the nonlinear and spatially heterogeneous responses of these objectives to reservoir operations have remained poorly understood. To address this gap, a novel integrated framework is developed, incorporating Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)-based multi-objective functions, Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms II (NSGA-II) for optimization, and Copula function analysis. This approach enables a systematic assessment of synergy-competition dynamics among multiple objectives under varying hydrological conditions and operational scenarios. The results showed that sediment and economic benefits increased by 18.7 % and 24.1 % on average, particularly in the middle and lower reaches. Ecological benefits exhibited an "inverted U-shaped" response, declining by up to 36.5 % beyond a certain threshold, becoming increasingly pronounced downstream. During dry years, sediment benefits increased by 1.5-2.4 times, while ecological-economic competition intensified by a factor of ten. Upstream cascade operations promoted sediment-economic synergy, whereas downstream regulation alleviated ecological-economic conflicts. These findings provide quantitative evidence and theoretical support for adaptive, resilient water resource management in complex, multi-objective basin systems.

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来源期刊
Science of the Total Environment
Science of the Total Environment 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
17.60
自引率
10.20%
发文量
8726
审稿时长
2.4 months
期刊介绍: The Science of the Total Environment is an international journal dedicated to scientific research on the environment and its interaction with humanity. It covers a wide range of disciplines and seeks to publish innovative, hypothesis-driven, and impactful research that explores the entire environment, including the atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere. The journal's updated Aims & Scope emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary environmental research with broad impact. Priority is given to studies that advance fundamental understanding and explore the interconnectedness of multiple environmental spheres. Field studies are preferred, while laboratory experiments must demonstrate significant methodological advancements or mechanistic insights with direct relevance to the environment.
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