M. Torre Jorgenson, James Sedinger, Craig Ely, Ann Fienup-Riordan, David E. Atkinson, James Ayuluk, Dana Brown, Gerald V. Frost, Benjamin M. Jones, Janet Jorgenson, Frank Keim, Rachel A. Loehman, Matt Macander, Alice Rearden
{"title":"海平面上升、海冰损失、风暴洪水、侵蚀和永久冻土融化的相互作用威胁着育空-库斯库温三角洲的生态系统、野生动物和社区","authors":"M. Torre Jorgenson, James Sedinger, Craig Ely, Ann Fienup-Riordan, David E. Atkinson, James Ayuluk, Dana Brown, Gerald V. Frost, Benjamin M. Jones, Janet Jorgenson, Frank Keim, Rachel A. Loehman, Matt Macander, Alice Rearden","doi":"10.1029/2025EF006015","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta has the largest intertidal wetland in North America, is a globally critical breeding area for waterbirds, and is home to the largest regional indigenous population in the Arctic. Here, coastal tundra ecosystems, wildlife, and indigenous communities are highly vulnerable to sea-ice loss in the Bering Sea, sea-level rise, storm flooding, erosion, and collapsing ground from permafrost thaw caused by climate warming. These drivers interact in non-linear ways to increase flooding, salinization, and sedimentation, and thus, alter ecosystem trajectories and broader landscape evolution. Rapid changes in these factors over decadal time scales are highly likely to cause transformative shifts in coastal ecosystems across roughly 70% of the outer delta this century. We project saline and brackish ecotypes on the active delta floodplain with frequent sedimentation will maintain dynamic equilibrium with sea-level rise and flooding, slightly brackish ecotypes on the inactive floodplain with infrequent flooding and low sedimentation rates will be vulnerable to increased flooding and likely transition to more saline and brackish ecotypes, and fresh lacustrine and lowland ecotypes on the abandoned floodplain with permafrost plateaus will be vulnerable to thermokarst, salinization and flooding that will shift them toward brackish ecosystems. This will greatly affect bird nesting and foraging habitats, with both winners and losers. Already, some Yup'ik communities are facing relocation of their low-lying villages. The societal challenges and consequences of adapting to these changing landscapes are enormous and will require a huge societal effort.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006015","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Interacting Sea-Level Rise, Sea-Ice Loss, Storm Flooding, Erosion, and Permafrost Thaw Threaten Ecosystems, Wildlife, and Communities on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta\",\"authors\":\"M. Torre Jorgenson, James Sedinger, Craig Ely, Ann Fienup-Riordan, David E. Atkinson, James Ayuluk, Dana Brown, Gerald V. Frost, Benjamin M. Jones, Janet Jorgenson, Frank Keim, Rachel A. Loehman, Matt Macander, Alice Rearden\",\"doi\":\"10.1029/2025EF006015\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta has the largest intertidal wetland in North America, is a globally critical breeding area for waterbirds, and is home to the largest regional indigenous population in the Arctic. Here, coastal tundra ecosystems, wildlife, and indigenous communities are highly vulnerable to sea-ice loss in the Bering Sea, sea-level rise, storm flooding, erosion, and collapsing ground from permafrost thaw caused by climate warming. These drivers interact in non-linear ways to increase flooding, salinization, and sedimentation, and thus, alter ecosystem trajectories and broader landscape evolution. Rapid changes in these factors over decadal time scales are highly likely to cause transformative shifts in coastal ecosystems across roughly 70% of the outer delta this century. We project saline and brackish ecotypes on the active delta floodplain with frequent sedimentation will maintain dynamic equilibrium with sea-level rise and flooding, slightly brackish ecotypes on the inactive floodplain with infrequent flooding and low sedimentation rates will be vulnerable to increased flooding and likely transition to more saline and brackish ecotypes, and fresh lacustrine and lowland ecotypes on the abandoned floodplain with permafrost plateaus will be vulnerable to thermokarst, salinization and flooding that will shift them toward brackish ecosystems. This will greatly affect bird nesting and foraging habitats, with both winners and losers. Already, some Yup'ik communities are facing relocation of their low-lying villages. The societal challenges and consequences of adapting to these changing landscapes are enormous and will require a huge societal effort.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48748,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Earths Future\",\"volume\":\"13 8\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":8.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-08-11\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF006015\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Earths Future\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EF006015\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Earths Future","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EF006015","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Interacting Sea-Level Rise, Sea-Ice Loss, Storm Flooding, Erosion, and Permafrost Thaw Threaten Ecosystems, Wildlife, and Communities on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta
The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta has the largest intertidal wetland in North America, is a globally critical breeding area for waterbirds, and is home to the largest regional indigenous population in the Arctic. Here, coastal tundra ecosystems, wildlife, and indigenous communities are highly vulnerable to sea-ice loss in the Bering Sea, sea-level rise, storm flooding, erosion, and collapsing ground from permafrost thaw caused by climate warming. These drivers interact in non-linear ways to increase flooding, salinization, and sedimentation, and thus, alter ecosystem trajectories and broader landscape evolution. Rapid changes in these factors over decadal time scales are highly likely to cause transformative shifts in coastal ecosystems across roughly 70% of the outer delta this century. We project saline and brackish ecotypes on the active delta floodplain with frequent sedimentation will maintain dynamic equilibrium with sea-level rise and flooding, slightly brackish ecotypes on the inactive floodplain with infrequent flooding and low sedimentation rates will be vulnerable to increased flooding and likely transition to more saline and brackish ecotypes, and fresh lacustrine and lowland ecotypes on the abandoned floodplain with permafrost plateaus will be vulnerable to thermokarst, salinization and flooding that will shift them toward brackish ecosystems. This will greatly affect bird nesting and foraging habitats, with both winners and losers. Already, some Yup'ik communities are facing relocation of their low-lying villages. The societal challenges and consequences of adapting to these changing landscapes are enormous and will require a huge societal effort.
期刊介绍:
Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.