海平面上升、海冰损失、风暴洪水、侵蚀和永久冻土融化的相互作用威胁着育空-库斯库温三角洲的生态系统、野生动物和社区

IF 8.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI:10.1029/2025EF006015
M. Torre Jorgenson, James Sedinger, Craig Ely, Ann Fienup-Riordan, David E. Atkinson, James Ayuluk, Dana Brown, Gerald V. Frost, Benjamin M. Jones, Janet Jorgenson, Frank Keim, Rachel A. Loehman, Matt Macander, Alice Rearden
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引用次数: 0

摘要

育空-库斯库温三角洲拥有北美最大的潮间带湿地,是全球水鸟的重要繁殖区,也是北极地区最大的土著人口的家园。在这里,沿海苔原生态系统、野生动物和土著社区极易受到白令海海冰融化、海平面上升、风暴洪水、侵蚀以及气候变暖导致的永久冻土融化导致的地面塌陷的影响。这些驱动因素以非线性方式相互作用,增加洪水、盐碱化和沉积,从而改变生态系统轨迹和更广泛的景观演变。这些因素在十年时间尺度上的快速变化极有可能导致本世纪外三角洲约70%的沿海生态系统发生变革性变化。我们预测,频繁沉积的活跃三角洲漫滩上的咸水和半咸水生态类型将与海平面上升和洪水保持动态平衡,而不活跃的漫滩上的轻度咸水生态类型,不频繁洪水和低沉积率将容易受到洪水增加的影响,并可能过渡到更多的咸水和半咸水生态类型。在被废弃的洪泛区和永久冻土高原上的新鲜湖泊和低地生态类型将容易受到热岩溶、盐碱化和洪水的影响,这将使它们向半咸淡生态系统转变。这将极大地影响鸟类筑巢和觅食的栖息地,既有赢家,也有输家。一些雅普族社区已经面临着低洼村庄的搬迁。适应这些不断变化的景观的社会挑战和后果是巨大的,需要巨大的社会努力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Interacting Sea-Level Rise, Sea-Ice Loss, Storm Flooding, Erosion, and Permafrost Thaw Threaten Ecosystems, Wildlife, and Communities on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta

Interacting Sea-Level Rise, Sea-Ice Loss, Storm Flooding, Erosion, and Permafrost Thaw Threaten Ecosystems, Wildlife, and Communities on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta

Interacting Sea-Level Rise, Sea-Ice Loss, Storm Flooding, Erosion, and Permafrost Thaw Threaten Ecosystems, Wildlife, and Communities on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta

Interacting Sea-Level Rise, Sea-Ice Loss, Storm Flooding, Erosion, and Permafrost Thaw Threaten Ecosystems, Wildlife, and Communities on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta

The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta has the largest intertidal wetland in North America, is a globally critical breeding area for waterbirds, and is home to the largest regional indigenous population in the Arctic. Here, coastal tundra ecosystems, wildlife, and indigenous communities are highly vulnerable to sea-ice loss in the Bering Sea, sea-level rise, storm flooding, erosion, and collapsing ground from permafrost thaw caused by climate warming. These drivers interact in non-linear ways to increase flooding, salinization, and sedimentation, and thus, alter ecosystem trajectories and broader landscape evolution. Rapid changes in these factors over decadal time scales are highly likely to cause transformative shifts in coastal ecosystems across roughly 70% of the outer delta this century. We project saline and brackish ecotypes on the active delta floodplain with frequent sedimentation will maintain dynamic equilibrium with sea-level rise and flooding, slightly brackish ecotypes on the inactive floodplain with infrequent flooding and low sedimentation rates will be vulnerable to increased flooding and likely transition to more saline and brackish ecotypes, and fresh lacustrine and lowland ecotypes on the abandoned floodplain with permafrost plateaus will be vulnerable to thermokarst, salinization and flooding that will shift them toward brackish ecosystems. This will greatly affect bird nesting and foraging habitats, with both winners and losers. Already, some Yup'ik communities are facing relocation of their low-lying villages. The societal challenges and consequences of adapting to these changing landscapes are enormous and will require a huge societal effort.

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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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