温度对中国北方家庭用电量的影响：来自智能电表的证据

IF 4.4 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI:10.1016/j.jup.2025.102022

Tie Shi , Hanyi Chen , Junbing Xu , Xuebin Wang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文以河南省焦作市为研究对象，利用智能电表采集的家庭日常用电量数据估算其短期温度响应。根据柔性温度仓模型的估计，相对于参考温度仓，在温度高于27°C时，住宅用电需求平均增加22.7%或更多。在其他条件不变的情况下，在CMIP5情景下，平均气温上升1.5°C将导致到本世纪中叶住宅用电量增加5.9%。我们的结果，虽然最精确的河南省，但足以推广到中国北方。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The effect of temperatures on household electricity consumption in northern China: Evidence from smart meters

This paper uses daily household electricity consumption data collected by smart electricity meters to estimate the short-run temperature response in Jiaozuo City, Henan Province. Estimates from the flexible temperature bin model indicate that, on average, residential electricity demand increases by 22.7 % or more at temperatures above 27 °C relative to the reference temperature bin. Holding all else constant, a 1.5 °C increase in average temperature under the CMIP5 scenario would lead to a 5.9 % increase in residential electricity use by mid-century. Our results, although most precise for Henan Province, are nevertheless sufficiently generalizable to northern China.

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来源期刊

Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.