网络动力学揭示了波河流域干旱同步枢纽。

IF 3.9 2区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
Antonio Zinilli, Edmondo Di Giuseppe, Arianna Di Paola, Sara Quaresima, Massimiliano Pasqui
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引用次数: 0

摘要

日益加剧的气候危机加剧了长期干旱的频率和严重程度,特别是在环境和社会经济脆弱的气候变化热点地区。尽管在监测方面取得了进展,但对干旱事件的时空传播和相互依赖性仍然知之甚少。这项研究分析了波河流域的干旱同步,这是一个重要的水文系统,约占意大利GDP的40%。利用12月标准化降水指数(SPI-12)和复杂网络方法,揭示了干旱传播的时空动态,确定了关键枢纽和热点区域。我们的分析确定了干旱起源的空间枢纽和影响汇聚的终端区。这一过程遵循扩散传播机制,即局部事件通过优先途径传播,直到它们被恢复降水制度的季节性气候条件所中断。这些发现加强了对相互关联系统中干旱动态的认识,促进了复杂网络理论在水文气候学中的应用。它们还为研究社会对气候变化的适应能力和制定可持续水文系统的适应战略提供了基础。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Network dynamics reveal drought synchronization hubs in the Po River Basin.

The intensifying climate crisis has exacerbated the frequency and severity of prolonged droughts, particularly in environmentally and socio-economically vulnerable climate change hot-spot regions. Despite advancements in monitoring, the spatiotemporal propagation and interdependencies of drought events remain poorly understood. This study analyzes drought synchronization within the Po River Basin, a critical hydrological system contributing approximately 40% of Italy's GDP. Using the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12) and complex network methods, we reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of drought propagation, identifying key hubs and hot-spot regions. Our analysis identifies spatial hubs where droughts originate and terminal zones where impacts converge. This process follows a diffusive propagation mechanism, whereby local events spread through preferential pathways until they are interrupted by seasonal climatic conditions that restore precipitation regime. These findings enhance understanding of drought dynamics in interconnected systems, advancing the application of complex network theory to hydro-climatology. They also provide a foundation for research on societal resilience to climate change and the development of adaptive strategies for sustainable hydrological systems.

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来源期刊
Scientific Reports
Scientific Reports Natural Science Disciplines-
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
4.30%
发文量
19567
审稿时长
3.9 months
期刊介绍: We publish original research from all areas of the natural sciences, psychology, medicine and engineering. You can learn more about what we publish by browsing our specific scientific subject areas below or explore Scientific Reports by browsing all articles and collections. Scientific Reports has a 2-year impact factor: 4.380 (2021), and is the 6th most-cited journal in the world, with more than 540,000 citations in 2020 (Clarivate Analytics, 2021). •Engineering Engineering covers all aspects of engineering, technology, and applied science. It plays a crucial role in the development of technologies to address some of the world''s biggest challenges, helping to save lives and improve the way we live. •Physical sciences Physical sciences are those academic disciplines that aim to uncover the underlying laws of nature — often written in the language of mathematics. It is a collective term for areas of study including astronomy, chemistry, materials science and physics. •Earth and environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences cover all aspects of Earth and planetary science and broadly encompass solid Earth processes, surface and atmospheric dynamics, Earth system history, climate and climate change, marine and freshwater systems, and ecology. It also considers the interactions between humans and these systems. •Biological sciences Biological sciences encompass all the divisions of natural sciences examining various aspects of vital processes. The concept includes anatomy, physiology, cell biology, biochemistry and biophysics, and covers all organisms from microorganisms, animals to plants. •Health sciences The health sciences study health, disease and healthcare. This field of study aims to develop knowledge, interventions and technology for use in healthcare to improve the treatment of patients.
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