Chun Wang, Liyan Hou, Hang Zhou, Qian Wang, Hongting Yan, Yue Lang, Jing Tan, Yanzhi Liu, Yusong Ge, Yongzhong Lin, Ce Fu, Jianqiao Liu
{"title":"全球ADHD负担的演变：综合分析和未来预测（1990-2046）。","authors":"Chun Wang, Liyan Hou, Hang Zhou, Qian Wang, Hongting Yan, Yue Lang, Jing Tan, Yanzhi Liu, Yusong Ge, Yongzhong Lin, Ce Fu, Jianqiao Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jad.2025.120037","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is one of the most common neurodevelopmental disorders in childhood, affecting cognitive, behavioral, and social functions, and imposing a substantial global economic burden.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>ADHD often persists into adulthood, creating ongoing challenges for healthcare systems worldwide. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the global ADHD disease burden, including future projections to inform long-term public health strategies.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The global incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ADHD in 2021 were assessed by age-standardized rates. Temporal trends from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) derived from log-linear regression models, while cluster analysis examined regional variations across the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. Future projections for ADHD burden over the next 25 years were made using ARIMA and BAPC models.</p><p><strong>Result: </strong>Between 1990 and 2021, global ADHD incidence, prevalence, and DALYs increased by 9.92 %, 18.71 %, and 18.57 %, respectively, with the highest burden among children and adolescents. Males consistently exhibited higher rates across all measures. High and high-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions experienced an increase in ADHD burden, whereas low SDI regions showed stable or declining trends. BAPC projections indicate continued growth in ADHD cases, with a particularly steep rise anticipated among females, indicating a potential narrowing of the historical gender gap in ADHD prevalence.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>ADHD remains a major global health issue, with significant disparities across regions, genders, and socio-demographic groups. Targeted, evidence-based healthcare strategies are crucial to address these challenges and mitigate ADHD socio-economic impact globally.</p>","PeriodicalId":14963,"journal":{"name":"Journal of affective disorders","volume":" ","pages":"120037"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The evolving global burden of ADHD: A comprehensive analysis and future projections (1990-2046).\",\"authors\":\"Chun Wang, Liyan Hou, Hang Zhou, Qian Wang, Hongting Yan, Yue Lang, Jing Tan, Yanzhi Liu, Yusong Ge, Yongzhong Lin, Ce Fu, Jianqiao Liu\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jad.2025.120037\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is one of the most common neurodevelopmental disorders in childhood, affecting cognitive, behavioral, and social functions, and imposing a substantial global economic burden.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>ADHD often persists into adulthood, creating ongoing challenges for healthcare systems worldwide. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the global ADHD disease burden, including future projections to inform long-term public health strategies.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The global incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ADHD in 2021 were assessed by age-standardized rates. Temporal trends from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) derived from log-linear regression models, while cluster analysis examined regional variations across the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. Future projections for ADHD burden over the next 25 years were made using ARIMA and BAPC models.</p><p><strong>Result: </strong>Between 1990 and 2021, global ADHD incidence, prevalence, and DALYs increased by 9.92 %, 18.71 %, and 18.57 %, respectively, with the highest burden among children and adolescents. Males consistently exhibited higher rates across all measures. High and high-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions experienced an increase in ADHD burden, whereas low SDI regions showed stable or declining trends. BAPC projections indicate continued growth in ADHD cases, with a particularly steep rise anticipated among females, indicating a potential narrowing of the historical gender gap in ADHD prevalence.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>ADHD remains a major global health issue, with significant disparities across regions, genders, and socio-demographic groups. Targeted, evidence-based healthcare strategies are crucial to address these challenges and mitigate ADHD socio-economic impact globally.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":14963,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of affective disorders\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"120037\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-12-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of affective disorders\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2025.120037\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/8/6 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of affective disorders","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2025.120037","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/8/6 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
The evolving global burden of ADHD: A comprehensive analysis and future projections (1990-2046).
Background: Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is one of the most common neurodevelopmental disorders in childhood, affecting cognitive, behavioral, and social functions, and imposing a substantial global economic burden.
Objective: ADHD often persists into adulthood, creating ongoing challenges for healthcare systems worldwide. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the global ADHD disease burden, including future projections to inform long-term public health strategies.
Methods: The global incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ADHD in 2021 were assessed by age-standardized rates. Temporal trends from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) derived from log-linear regression models, while cluster analysis examined regional variations across the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. Future projections for ADHD burden over the next 25 years were made using ARIMA and BAPC models.
Result: Between 1990 and 2021, global ADHD incidence, prevalence, and DALYs increased by 9.92 %, 18.71 %, and 18.57 %, respectively, with the highest burden among children and adolescents. Males consistently exhibited higher rates across all measures. High and high-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions experienced an increase in ADHD burden, whereas low SDI regions showed stable or declining trends. BAPC projections indicate continued growth in ADHD cases, with a particularly steep rise anticipated among females, indicating a potential narrowing of the historical gender gap in ADHD prevalence.
Conclusion: ADHD remains a major global health issue, with significant disparities across regions, genders, and socio-demographic groups. Targeted, evidence-based healthcare strategies are crucial to address these challenges and mitigate ADHD socio-economic impact globally.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Affective Disorders publishes papers concerned with affective disorders in the widest sense: depression, mania, mood spectrum, emotions and personality, anxiety and stress. It is interdisciplinary and aims to bring together different approaches for a diverse readership. Top quality papers will be accepted dealing with any aspect of affective disorders, including neuroimaging, cognitive neurosciences, genetics, molecular biology, experimental and clinical neurosciences, pharmacology, neuroimmunoendocrinology, intervention and treatment trials.
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