城市抗洪能力评估框架:多维指标与动态适应策略的整合。

IF 8.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Journal of Environmental Management Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-06 DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126841
Yun Liu, Yuxin Jiang, Yongfei Deng
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在全球气候变化和城市化加速的背景下,城市洪涝风险持续上升。为了解决特大城市的洪水风险防范需求,本研究以中国4个直辖市(北京、天津、上海和重庆)为典型案例。通过压力-状态-响应(PSR)框架对关键指标进行量化,并利用灰色关联分析(GRA)对压力、状态和响应维度参数进行科学标定,构建了基于PSR-GRA的城市抗涝能力评价框架。该框架整合了结构化和定量方法,涵盖了城市抗洪能力演变的压力、状态和响应三个阶段,评估了城市抵御极端降雨洪水影响和快速恢复正常城市运营的能力。利用2013-2023年四个城市的官方数据,将框架的评估值与实际灾害情景进行比较,发现UFRI(城市洪水恢复指数)结果与洪水频率/严重程度之间存在显著相关性,证实了PSR-GRA模型的可靠性和有效性。评估结果显示,2013 - 2023年,4个城市的UFRI均呈正增长,但由于地理、气候和城市发展模式的差异,UFRI的增长轨迹各不相同。为增强评估的动态性和实践指导,将适应性管理融入PSR-GRA模型,建立“监测-评估-响应-反馈”闭环系统,精确调控恢复力提升策略。这一经过验证的框架为城市洪水韧性评估和规划提供了一种全面、可复制的方法,尤其适用于特大城市的洪水易发地区,为减轻洪水风险和加强城市规划以增强长期适应性提供了参考。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A framework for urban flood resilience assessment: Integrating multidimensional indicators and dynamic adaptation strategies.

Against the backdrop of global climate change and accelerated urbanization, the risk of urban flooding continues to rise. To address the flood risk prevention needs of megacities, this study takes four Chinese municipalities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing) as typical cases. It constructs a PSR-GRA-based urban flood resilience assessment framework by quantifying key indicators via the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework and scientifically calibrating parameters for pressure, state, and response dimensions using Grey Relational Analysis (GRA). The framework integrates structured and quantitative methodologies, covering the three stages of pressure, state, and response in the evolution of urban flood resilience, evaluating cities' capabilities to withstand flood impacts from extreme rainfall and rapidly restore normal urban operations. Using official data from the four cities spanning 2013-2023, comparison of the framework's assessment values with actual disaster scenarios reveals significant correlations between UFRI (Urban Flood Resilience Index) results and flood frequency/severity, confirming the PSR-GRA model's reliability and effectiveness. Assessment results show the four municipalities' UFRI all rose positively from 2013 to 2023, with distinct trajectories due to differences in geography, climate, and urban development models. To enhance assessment dynamics and practical guidance, adaptive management is integrated into the PSR-GRA model, establishing a "monitoring-assessment-response-feedback" closed-loop system for precise regulation of resilience improvement strategies. This validated framework provides a comprehensive, replicable approach for urban flood resilience evaluation and planning-particularly suitable for megacities' flood-prone areas, offering references for mitigating flood risks and strengthening urban planning to enhance long-term adaptability.

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来源期刊
Journal of Environmental Management
Journal of Environmental Management 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
13.70
自引率
5.70%
发文量
2477
审稿时长
84 days
期刊介绍: The Journal of Environmental Management is a journal for the publication of peer reviewed, original research for all aspects of management and the managed use of the environment, both natural and man-made.Critical review articles are also welcome; submission of these is strongly encouraged.
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