Factors and Outcomes of Inappropriate Thyroid Ultrasonography.

Importance: Thyroid cancer incidence has tripled in the past 3 decades, largely driven by increased detection of small, indolent papillary thyroid cancers. Overuse of thyroid ultrasonography (TUS) contributes to overdiagnosis, leading to unnecessary biopsies, procedures, and potential patient harm.

Objective: To evaluate the frequency of and factors associated with inappropriate TUS (iTUS) orders and assess related clinical outcomes.

Design, setting, and participants: This retrospective cohort study analyzed adult patients 18 years and older who underwent their first TUS from January 1, 2017, to December 30, 2021, at 4 Mayo Clinic sites. Patients with previous thyroid nodule, thyroid cancer, thyroid surgery, or TUS were excluded. Based on documented clinical indications, a validated natural language processing model classified TUS orders as appropriate or inappropriate. Data were analyzed from April 2024 to May 2025.

Exposures: Baseline characteristics of patients, clinicians, and clinical encounters investigated for their association with an iTUS order.

Main outcomes and measures: The primary outcome was the proportion of iTUS orders. Secondary outcomes included factors associated with iTUS (sociodemographic, clinical, order-specific, and clinician-related factors) and clinical outcomes following iTUS, including the detection of thyroid nodules, thyroid procedures, and thyroid cancer diagnoses.

Results: Of 11 442 included patients, 8422 (73.6%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 57.3 (15.8) years with a mean (SD) body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) of 29.7 (7.0). Among 11 442 TUS orders, 866 (7.6%) were classified as inappropriate. In multivariable analysis, younger age (age of 18 to 54 years vs older than 65 years; odds ratio [OR], 1.86; 95% CI, 1.56-2.22), hyperthyroidism (OR, 9.04; 95% CI, 6.75-12.11), ordering by nonendocrinology specialties (eg, oncology/hematology; OR, 3.43; 95% CI, 2.47-4.76), and orders not linked to an in-person appointment (eg, portal messages; OR, 2.42; 95% CI, 2.08-2.82) were strongly associated with increased odds of iTUS. Compared with appropriate TUS, iTUS led to lower rates of thyroid nodule detection (202 of 866 [23.3%] vs 6885 of 10 576 [65.1%]; OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.14-0.19), biopsies (89 [10.3%] vs 2647 [25.0%]; OR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.27-0.43), partial thyroidectomies (14 [1.6%] vs 424 [4.0%]; OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.23-0.67), and confirmed thyroid cancer cases (16 [1.8%] vs 425 [4.0%]; OR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.27-0.74).

Conclusions and relevance: In this cohort study, approximately 1 in 13 TUS orders were inappropriate. iTUS was more common in younger patients, those with thyroid dysfunction, those not seen in person, and in those referred by nonendocrinology specialties. These findings highlight the need for targeted strategies to optimize TUS use and mitigate overdiagnosis and overtreatment.