Temporal trends in incidence and mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis: time series study, Sul da Bahia, 2010-2023.

Objective: To analyze the temporal trend of incidence and mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis in Southern Bahia.

Methods: Time series study of new cases and deaths from pulmonary tuberculosis conduccted on Costa do Descobrimento and in the Extremo Sul of Bahia. The number of new cases and deaths from pulmonary tuberculosis was obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System, between 2010 and 2023, and used to calculate incidence and mortality. Prais-Winsten regression was used to calculate the annual percentage variation (APV) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) and to classify trends.

Results: 4,005 new cases and 128 deaths from pulmonary tuberculosis were registrated during the period of the study. The average incidence was 34.91 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and mortality was 1.11 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. Incidence and mortality showed stationary trends. Decreasing incidence occurred in females (APV -0.01; 95%CI -0.02; -0.01) and in the age groups of 0-9 years (APV -0.02; 95%CI -0.04; -0.01), 40-59 years (APV -0.01; 95%CI -0.02; -0.01) and 60 years or older (APV -0.01; 95%CI -0.04; -0.01). Costa do Descobrimento showed a decreasing incidence for females (APV -0.02; 95%CI -0.03; -0.01) and for the age group of 40-59 years (APV -0.02; 95%CI -0.03; -0.01). In Extremo Sul, the incidence decreased in the 20-39 age group (APC -0.01; 95%CI -0.02; -0.01).

Conclusion: Although temporal trend of incidence and mortality were stationary, public health strategies are necessary, especially on Costa do Descobrimento, which maintained the highest rates of pulmonary tuberculosis.