Global cigarette market: trends in sales, pricing and estimates of price elasticity across WHO regions (2008-2022).

Objectives: To assess trends in cigarette sales and prices and estimate price elasticity of demand for cigarettes in the WHO regions.

Methods: Cigarette sales data (2008-2022) for 98 countries (88.7% of the global population), grouped across six WHO regions, were obtained from the Euromonitor International Passport database. Trends in cigarette stick sales, and inflation-adjusted sales values and prices were assessed using Joinpoint regression. The price elasticity was estimated using a panel data fixed-effects model, adjusting for potential confounders.

Results: From 2008 to 2022, global cigarette stick sales decreased 11.6%, driven by significant reductions in the Americas (40.6%) and Europe (40.9%). Conversely, sales remained stable in the Western Pacific and South-East Asia, while increasing in the Eastern Mediterranean and Africa-the only two regions that experienced minimal or no price increases. The global price elasticity was estimated at -0.44. The Americas showed the highest elasticity (-0.89), followed by the Western Pacific (-0.51), Europe (-0.49) and the Eastern Mediterranean (-0.30)-no significant elasticity was observed in Africa or South-East Asia.

Conclusions: Rising cigarette prices have contributed to reduced sales in the Americas and Europe, indicating the effectiveness of tobacco taxation and/or the effects of industry pricing strategies. Conversely, sales remained stable in the Western Pacific and South-East, likely due to population and economic growth offsetting price effects. Sales increased in the Eastern Mediterranean and Africa alongside minimal price changes, highlighting the urgent need for stronger tobacco control through sustained tax increases and countering industry interference.