The future of cement: Technological innovation in representative concentration pathways

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide valuable insights into the cement industry's future trends while ensuring scenario consistency on a global and economy-wide scale. However, IAMs often have a low technological resolution, omitting a wide range of abatement options currently under development for the cement industry, only focusing on potential improvements to energy efficiency of the kiln and the adoption of a single, often unspecified, carbon capture and storage technology. This study investigates how the inclusion of these technologies would impact the cement producers' investment decisions and contribute to emission reductions. An econometric model that is soft-linked with an IAM is used to integrate the abatement options in the scenarios while ensuring consistency with the underlying assumptions is maintained. For clinker production, this study evaluates full and partial carbon capture technologies, as well as novel heating options, applicable to new kilns or as retrofits. For cement production, the study determined investments in limestone calcined clay cement, a novel ternary cement blend. The model is applied to the EU, United States, and Canada for the SSP2-baseline and RCP2.6 and RCP1.9 scenarios. Results indicate that investors are likely to invest in a wide range of the omitted abatement options. Key factors influencing investment decisions are energy prices, carbon tax, and alternative fuel supply. Finally, a prospective consequential life cycle assessment was conducted to determine the environmental impact of these investment strategies. The impact assessment showed substantial reductions in global warming potential across all scenarios, with reductions of up to sevenfold the original value. This article met the requirements for a gold-gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.