Assessing gecko susceptibility to international wildlife trade: A novel trait-based framework

International wildlife trade (IWT) drives biodiversity loss, often affecting species before they are formally assessed or well-known, particularly newly described ones. These species can be traded without consequence due to a lack of prior knowledge or legal protection and reptiles, especially geckos, face pressure from the exotic pet and traditional medicine trades.

We developed a Wildlife Trade Susceptibility Framework (WTSF), adapting trait-based methods from climate change vulnerability assessments to evaluate how species traits influence their desirability and exposure to trade. We applied the WTSF to 1886 known gecko species, a group heavily targeted by IWT. The framework identified 48 % of species as highly susceptible to trade. Key traits linked to susceptibility included evolutionary distinctiveness and body mass. Regions with the highest concentrations of susceptible and sensitive species included Madagascar, Southeast Asia, and New Guinea.

A third of the most sensitive gecko species are absent from current trade databases, likely due to low demand, limited accessibility, or effective enforcement. This absence highlights the limitations of existing species knowledge and monitoring in identifying those most at risk from IWT. Our framework provides an early warning system to flag biologically susceptible species before they appear in trade and can be applied across taxonomic groups.