Probabilistic Modeling and Experimental Validation of Fatigue Damage in Riveted Lap Joints of Aircraft Structures

The unpredictability of crack initiation and propagation in aircraft structures with multiple site damage (MSD) and widespread fatigue damage (WFD) presents significant challenges for maintaining the structural integrity of aircraft under fatigue loading. This paper presents a probabilistic analysis model for riveted lap joints with MSD. The probabilistic analysis model leverages a secondary customization of ABAQUS, enabling parametric modeling of penetration cracks with varying lengths. In this model, the stochastic processes of crack initiation, propagation, and failure are simulated through a Monte Carlo framework, incorporating the theories of fracture mechanics and fatigue statistics. In addition, a group of riveted lap joint tests are carried out to verify the accuracy of the calculation results. The simulated results are in good agreement with the mean experimental fatigue life. However, the model underestimates the dispersion observed in the experimental data in the current study, primarily due to the lack of extensive experimental data needed for further calibration. Overall, the developed model can capture the complex, interdependent mechanisms of fatigue damage in riveted lap joints with MSD.