{"title":"碳交易价格的不确定性如何影响多式联运网络?来自枢纽海港的洞察","authors":"Zi-Ang Zhang , Xuezong Tao , Chuanzhong Yin , Shiyuan Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104621","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study addresses the current structural ineffectiveness of freight transportation systems, by focusing on the design of a hub seaport intermodal freight transportation network (IFTN) and considering uncertainties in the carbon trading price. The fuzzy credibility function of the carbon trading price is established based on a triangular fuzzy number, and the fuzzy carbon trading price is clarified using different values associated with an enterprise’s risk preference level. A multi-objective 0–1 programming model is constructed, considering transportation cost, carbon trading cost, and transportation time. An improved NSGA-II based on the ideal point method is designed to solve the model. The effectiveness and efficiency of the modeling and solving methods are demonstrated through numerical experiments for the real-world case of a Chinese hub seaport. Managerial implications and recommendations are presented based on extensive sensitivity analyses. The results highlight the following. (<em>i</em>) Under the influence of carbon trading policy, transport enterprises adopt direct rail or rail-water intermodal transportation. (<em>ii</em>) The objective value of carbon trading cost is inversely proportional to an enterprise’s risk preference level with respect to the carbon trading price. This indicates that an enterprise’s decision-making behavior related to emissions reduction under different risk attitudes is prompted by costs or benefits. (<em>iii</em>) Carbon quotas are unlikely to effectively affect transportation schemes from a modeling perspective, but it is useful to emphasize their effectiveness as an emissions reduction policy instrument. These findings can be applied to accelerate the sustainable transformation and decarbonization efforts of the transport and logistics industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49421,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 104621"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"How does carbon trading price uncertainty affect intermodal transportation network? Insights from a hub seaport\",\"authors\":\"Zi-Ang Zhang , Xuezong Tao , Chuanzhong Yin , Shiyuan Zheng\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.tra.2025.104621\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>This study addresses the current structural ineffectiveness of freight transportation systems, by focusing on the design of a hub seaport intermodal freight transportation network (IFTN) and considering uncertainties in the carbon trading price. The fuzzy credibility function of the carbon trading price is established based on a triangular fuzzy number, and the fuzzy carbon trading price is clarified using different values associated with an enterprise’s risk preference level. A multi-objective 0–1 programming model is constructed, considering transportation cost, carbon trading cost, and transportation time. An improved NSGA-II based on the ideal point method is designed to solve the model. The effectiveness and efficiency of the modeling and solving methods are demonstrated through numerical experiments for the real-world case of a Chinese hub seaport. Managerial implications and recommendations are presented based on extensive sensitivity analyses. The results highlight the following. (<em>i</em>) Under the influence of carbon trading policy, transport enterprises adopt direct rail or rail-water intermodal transportation. (<em>ii</em>) The objective value of carbon trading cost is inversely proportional to an enterprise’s risk preference level with respect to the carbon trading price. This indicates that an enterprise’s decision-making behavior related to emissions reduction under different risk attitudes is prompted by costs or benefits. (<em>iii</em>) Carbon quotas are unlikely to effectively affect transportation schemes from a modeling perspective, but it is useful to emphasize their effectiveness as an emissions reduction policy instrument. These findings can be applied to accelerate the sustainable transformation and decarbonization efforts of the transport and logistics industry.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49421,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice\",\"volume\":\"200 \",\"pages\":\"Article 104621\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-08-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856425002496\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856425002496","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
How does carbon trading price uncertainty affect intermodal transportation network? Insights from a hub seaport
This study addresses the current structural ineffectiveness of freight transportation systems, by focusing on the design of a hub seaport intermodal freight transportation network (IFTN) and considering uncertainties in the carbon trading price. The fuzzy credibility function of the carbon trading price is established based on a triangular fuzzy number, and the fuzzy carbon trading price is clarified using different values associated with an enterprise’s risk preference level. A multi-objective 0–1 programming model is constructed, considering transportation cost, carbon trading cost, and transportation time. An improved NSGA-II based on the ideal point method is designed to solve the model. The effectiveness and efficiency of the modeling and solving methods are demonstrated through numerical experiments for the real-world case of a Chinese hub seaport. Managerial implications and recommendations are presented based on extensive sensitivity analyses. The results highlight the following. (i) Under the influence of carbon trading policy, transport enterprises adopt direct rail or rail-water intermodal transportation. (ii) The objective value of carbon trading cost is inversely proportional to an enterprise’s risk preference level with respect to the carbon trading price. This indicates that an enterprise’s decision-making behavior related to emissions reduction under different risk attitudes is prompted by costs or benefits. (iii) Carbon quotas are unlikely to effectively affect transportation schemes from a modeling perspective, but it is useful to emphasize their effectiveness as an emissions reduction policy instrument. These findings can be applied to accelerate the sustainable transformation and decarbonization efforts of the transport and logistics industry.
期刊介绍:
Transportation Research: Part A contains papers of general interest in all passenger and freight transportation modes: policy analysis, formulation and evaluation; planning; interaction with the political, socioeconomic and physical environment; design, management and evaluation of transportation systems. Topics are approached from any discipline or perspective: economics, engineering, sociology, psychology, etc. Case studies, survey and expository papers are included, as are articles which contribute to unification of the field, or to an understanding of the comparative aspects of different systems. Papers which assess the scope for technological innovation within a social or political framework are also published. The journal is international, and places equal emphasis on the problems of industrialized and non-industrialized regions.
Part A''s aims and scope are complementary to Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Part C: Emerging Technologies and Part D: Transport and Environment. Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review. Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour. The complete set forms the most cohesive and comprehensive reference of current research in transportation science.