Impact of carbon inequality embodied in interprovincial trade on National Road Freight Supply Chain Resilience

The uneven distribution of carbon emissions along interprovincial trade links presents a significant yet underrecognized threat to national supply chain resilience. This study introduces an innovative trade flow-based framework to assess and enhance resilience, using carbon emission changes as a core indicator of resilience to capture the environmental impact of trade activities. Utilizing a multi-region input-output (MRIO) model, we quantify the interactions between road freight emissions and commodity trade flows. Resilience is then evaluated through network efficiency and the coupling coordination degree model. Percolation theory provides quantitative failure threshold for resilience planning, while a cascade failure model simulates the network's dynamic response to node disruptions. Findings reveal that disparities in emission intensity embedded in trade significantly affect regional resilience, with resilience more closely tied to traded products and freight structure than to economic development, and that failures at key bottlenecks can cause multilevel breakdowns in supply chain network. Furthermore, the allocation of carbon responsibilities and emissions-trade relationships emerge as pivotal drivers for enhancing supply chain resilience. The study underscores the necessity for differentiated policies that account for geographical and industrial heterogeneity, promoting strategies to mitigate freight emissions and foster sustainable development.