An econometric approach toward water policy assessment: A case of groundwater meter installation (GWMI) in Iran

Study region

The basins of Kor and Sivand Rivers, Iran.

Study focus

More than two decades of groundwater depletion in Iran, prompted the Supreme Water Council (ISWC) approve the GWMI policy, aiming to reduce the groundwater withdrawal. Currently, although a decade has passed since the approval of the GWMI and significant financial resources have been invested in it, yet, no study has attempted to evaluate its effectiveness. To address this gap, this study evaluated the performance of the GWMI in reducing groundwater withdrawal using various propensity score-based econometric models.

New Hydrological Insights for the Region

Although all models showed acceptable fit and met their assumptions, results indicate that the GWMI —as one of Iran's most important water policies— has failed to achieve its primary goal of reducing groundwater withdrawal under all socioeconomic and water resources circumstances. This conclusion is based on the fact that the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT), used to assess GWMI’s effects, was not statistically significant in any model, despite indicating a decrease in well water withdrawal ranging from 763 m³ to 17,219 m³ in some areas. This study showed that this failure was mainly due to the mismatch between permitted volume of water extraction of wells and the dynamic storage of the aquifers, as well as as weaknesses in water pricing and low accuracy of meters.