Exploring thresholds and drivers of water-energy-food nexus across China: Insights from 2005 to 2020

Study region

This study is conducted at the provincial level in mainland China from 2005 to 2020.

Study focus

The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is fundamental to sustainable development of human-nature systems, yet whether its evolving drivers exhibit threshold remains poorly understood. To address this gap, we developed an indicator-based analytical framework to quantify the sustainable levels of WEF nexus. We applied K-means clustering to identify regional patterns, used the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model to assess inter-sectoral synergy, and conducted threshold regression to explore the threshold of the key drivers.

New Hydrological Insights for the Region

Four clusters were identified based on divergent sustainable levels across WEF sectors. While the performance of WEF sectors and the CCD of the nexus significantly improved, marked heterogeneities persisted across these clusters. For Cluster 1, a CCD threshold was observed in 2017 when per capita consumption and urbanization rates reached 20,417 yuan and 53.3 %, respectively. For Cluster 3, a threshold manifested in 2007 when the NDVI reached 0.7. In Cluster 4, a threshold occurred in 2010 when the proportion of environmental investment reached 1.7 %. Threshold analysis suggests that enhancing key drivers in regions below the threshold could significantly improve WEF nexus synergy. Furthermore, evolving WEF dynamics reduce policy effectiveness, necessitating adaptive region-specific strategies. These findings provide valuable insights for tailoring resource management and development strategies in China’s diverse regions.