Forecasting organic waste and biomethane generation potential of a non industrial district of Eastern India: A data-driven approach to sustainable energy and waste management

Waste management is a critical indicator, affecting public health, sanitation, and environmental sustainability, which can improve living standards in disadvantaged communities. The main objective of the study is to estimate population growth and organic waste production and assess the methane production until 2051 in 6 municipalities of Birbhum district. Arithmetic and Geometric Progression were used for population predictions, and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) models for methane estimation. This study found that Birbhum municipal solid waste (MSW) contains 57–64 % organic material from markets, kitchens, and gardens, varying by municipalities. Results show that Class II municipalities like Bolpur generates 21 Metric Tonnes (MT) of organic waste everyday (364.86 gm per capita in 2021). With a 40 % organic waste collection efficiency, Bolpur can generate 7.67 Gg of methane yearly, expected to increase to 57 Gg/year by 2051, equivalent to 76 hm³ /year of Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG). By 2051, other municipalities—Sainthia, Rampurhat, Nalhati, Suri, and Dubrajpur—shows high biomethane potential and the predicted LPG-equivalent methane production is 13.82, 19.92, 24.52, 22.95, and 1.78 hm³ respectively. This methane potential is due to exponential population increase and rising per capita MSW generation rates of 548.55, 609, 404.07, 645.38, and 501.45 gm per capita per day (g.p.c.d.) for Sainthia, Rampurhat, Nalhati, Suri and Dubrajpur municipality respectively. The results indicate that Birbhum's organic waste have high Biomethane Potential (BMP), highlighting the need to enhance waste collection and management. Effectively using this resource can boost district socio-economic growth, cleaner energy production, and environmental sustainability.