通过流行病模型重新评估公众对艾滋病毒和COVID-19合并感染的认识和预防策略

IF 2.6 3区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
PLoS ONE Pub Date : 2025-07-31 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0328488
Dipo Aldila, Joseph Páez Chávez, Bayu Nugroho, Benjamin Idoko Omede, Olumuyiwa James Peter, Putri Zahra Kamalia
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文讨论了考虑COVID-19疫苗接种和公众意识的HIV - COVID-19共感染模型。对模型进行了严格的分析,建立了单感染模型的存在性和局部稳定性条件。我们发现,当对应的COVID-19和HIV的繁殖数超过1时,该疾病在单次感染模型中继续存在。此外,如果艾滋病毒的繁殖数小于1,那么它将永远被根除。然而,这并不适用于单感染COVID-19模型。即使当基本繁殖数小于1时,由于可能出现向后分叉现象,也可能存在地方性平衡点。因此,在单感染模型中,当基本繁殖数小于1时,可能出现地方性和无病平衡的双稳定性。从共感染模型中,我们发现共感染模型的繁殖数是HIV与COVID-19繁殖数之间的最大值。我们在共感染模型上的数值延拓实验揭示了一个阈值,表明HIV和COVID-19可能在人群中共存。只有当繁殖数小于1时,HIV和COVID-19的无病平衡才稳定。此外,我们对分岔图的双参数延拓分析表明,两个繁殖数等于1的条件是共同感染模型动态行为的组织中心。我们的模型的扩展版本纳入了四种不同的干预措施:口罩使用、疫苗接种和公众对COVID-19的认识,以及避孕套对艾滋病毒的使用,这些干预措施被制定为最优控制问题。采用庞特里亚金极大值原理描述最优控制问题,并采用正向-反向迭代法求解。最优控制模型的数值研究强调了精心设计的干预措施组合对实现最佳减少艾滋病毒和COVID-19传播的关键作用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Reassessment of public awareness and prevention strategies for HIV and COVID-19 co-infections through epidemic modeling.

A co-infection model between HIV and COVID-19 that takes into account COVID-19 vaccination and public awareness is discussed in this article. Rigorous analysis of the model is conducted to establish the existence and local stability conditions of the single-infection models. We discover that when the corresponding reproduction number for COVID-19 and HIV exceeds one, the disease continues to exist in both single-infection models. Furthermore, HIV will always be eradicated if its reproduction number is less than one. Nevertheless, this does not apply to the single-infection COVID-19 model. Even when the fundamental reproduction number is less than one, an endemic equilibrium point may exist due to the potential for a backward bifurcation phenomenon. Consequently, in the single-infection COVID-19 model, bistability between the endemic and disease-free equilibrium may arise when the basic reproduction number is less than one. From the co-infection model, we find that the reproduction number of the co-infection model is the maximum value between the reproduction number of HIV and COVID-19. Our numerical continuation experiments on the co-infection model reveal a threshold indicating that both HIV and COVID-19 may coexist within the population. The disease-free equilibrium for both HIV and COVID-19 is stable only if the reproduction numbers are less than one. Additionally, our two-parameter continuation analysis of the bifurcation diagram shows that the condition where both reproduction numbers equal one serves as an organizing center for the dynamic behavior of the co-infection model. An extended version of our model incorporates four different interventions: face mask usage, vaccination, and public awareness for COVID-19, as well as condom use for HIV, formulated as an optimal control problem. The Pontryagin's Maximum Principle is employed to characterize the optimal control problem, which is solved using a forward-backward iterative method. Numerical investigations of the optimal control model highlight the critical role of a well-designed combination of interventions to achieve optimal reductions in the spread of both HIV and COVID-19.

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来源期刊
PLoS ONE
PLoS ONE 生物-生物学
CiteScore
6.20
自引率
5.40%
发文量
14242
审稿时长
3.7 months
期刊介绍: PLOS ONE is an international, peer-reviewed, open-access, online publication. PLOS ONE welcomes reports on primary research from any scientific discipline. It provides: * Open-access—freely accessible online, authors retain copyright * Fast publication times * Peer review by expert, practicing researchers * Post-publication tools to indicate quality and impact * Community-based dialogue on articles * Worldwide media coverage
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