Shift to intra-EU-OECD trade enhanced environmental benefits after Basel Convention Plastic Waste Amendments

The Basel Convention Plastic Waste Amendments, implemented in 2021, have the potential to reshape traditional ‘North-to-South' plastic waste trade patterns and their environmental impacts. We analyze plastic waste trade among 21 countries before (2019–2020) and after (2021–2022) the amendments, quantifying environmental impacts from transport and waste treatment using life cycle assessment. We find that post-amendment trade among selected EU and non-EU OECD countries increased to 71 %, up 12 percentage points from pre-amendment period, when half of the trade flowed to non-OECD Asian countries. This shift yielded modest increases of 2 % in climate and 5 % in energy benefits. Further expanding intra-EU-OECD trade could boost climate benefits by up to 12 %, mainly by reducing open burning in non-OECD Asian countries. These findings offer environmental insights into the EU's upcoming ban on plastic waste exports to non-OECD countries, suggesting future trade will likely concentrate among countries with aligned waste shipment rules.