Z Lai, G Liu, H Zhao, M Qiu, J Chen, E Luo, J Xin, X Yang
{"title":"[1990 - 2035年囊性包虫病全球负担分析与预测]。","authors":"Z Lai, G Liu, H Zhao, M Qiu, J Chen, E Luo, J Xin, X Yang","doi":"10.16250/j.32.1915.2024195","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To investigate the trends in the global burden due to cystic echinococcosis from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the global burden of cystic echinococcosis from 2022 to 2035, so as to provide insights into formulation of the cystic echinococcosis control strategy.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The global age-standardized prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates and their 95% uncertainty intervals (<i>UI</i>) of cystic echinococcosis from 1990 to 2021 were captured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database, and the trends in the global burden of cystic echinococcosis from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model. The associations between the global burden of cystic echinococcosis and socio-demographic index (SDI) were examined using a smoothing spline model and frontier analysis, and the global burden of cystic echinococcosis was projected from 2022 to 2035 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The global agestandardized prevalence, mortality and DALYs rates of cystic echinococcosis were 7.69/10<sup>5</sup> [95% <i>UI</i>: (6.27/10<sup>5</sup>, 9.51/10<sup>5</sup>)], 0.02/10<sup>5</sup> [95% <i>UI</i>: (0.01/10<sup>5</sup>, 0.02/10<sup>5</sup>)], and 1.32/10<sup>5</sup> [95% <i>UI</i>: (0.99/10<sup>5</sup>, 1.69/10<sup>5</sup>)] in 2021. The global age-standardized prevalence of cystic echinococcosis appeared a tendency towards a rise by 0.14% per year from 1990 to 2021, and the global age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates of cystic echinococcosis appeared a tendency towards a decline by 4.68% and 4.01% per year from 1990 to 2021, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that global age-standardized prevalence of cystic echinococcosis appeared a tendency towards a decline from 1990 to 2000 [annual percent change (APC) = -0.66%, 95% confidence interval (<i>CI</i>): (-0.70%, -0.61%)] and from 2005 to 2015 [APC = -0.88%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (-0.93%, -0.82%)], and towards a rise from 2000 to 2005 [APC = 3.68%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (3.49%, 3.87%)] and from 2015 to 2021 [APC=0.30%, 95%<i>CI</i>: (0.19%, 0.40%)].Theagestandardized prevalence (<i>r</i> = -0.17, <i>P</i> < 0.05), mortality (<i>r</i> = -0.67, <i>P</i> < 0.05) and DALYs rates of cystic echinococcosis (<i>r</i> = -0.60, <i>P</i> < 0.05) all correlated negatively with SDI across 21 geographical regions from 1990 to 2021, and the age-standardized mortality (<i>r</i> = -0.61, <i>P</i> < 0.05) and DALYs rates (<i>r</i> = -0.44, <i>P</i> < 0.05) both correlated negatively with SDI across 204 countries and territories in 2021. Frontier analysis revealed that the age-standardized DALYs rate of cystic echinococcosis was still not in line with the frontier in some high-SDI countries or territories. In addition, the global age-standardized prevalence was projected with the BAPC model to appear a tendency towards a rise among both men [estimated annual percent change (EAPC) = 0.18%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (0.13%, 0.23%)] and women [EAPC = 0.29%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (0.24%, 0.34%)] from 2022 to 2035, and the global age-standardized mortality [men: EAPC = -4.71%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (-4.71%, -4.37%); women: EAPC = -4.74%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (-4.74%, -4.74%)] and DALYs rates [men: EAPC = -3.35%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (-3.36%, -3.34%); women: EAPC = -3.17%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (-3.18%, -3.16%)] were projected to appear a tendency towards a decline among both men and women.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The global burden of cystic echinococcosis appeared an overall tendency towards a decline from 1990 to 2021; however, the global prevalence of cystic echinococcosis is projected to appear a tendency towards a rise from 2022 to 2035. Intensified cystic echinococcosis control programmes are recommended.</p>","PeriodicalId":38874,"journal":{"name":"中国血吸虫病防治杂志","volume":"37 3","pages":"255-267"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"[Analysis and prediction of global burden due to cystic echinococcosis from 1990 to 2035].\",\"authors\":\"Z Lai, G Liu, H Zhao, M Qiu, J Chen, E Luo, J Xin, X Yang\",\"doi\":\"10.16250/j.32.1915.2024195\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To investigate the trends in the global burden due to cystic echinococcosis from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the global burden of cystic echinococcosis from 2022 to 2035, so as to provide insights into formulation of the cystic echinococcosis control strategy.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The global age-standardized prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates and their 95% uncertainty intervals (<i>UI</i>) of cystic echinococcosis from 1990 to 2021 were captured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database, and the trends in the global burden of cystic echinococcosis from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model. The associations between the global burden of cystic echinococcosis and socio-demographic index (SDI) were examined using a smoothing spline model and frontier analysis, and the global burden of cystic echinococcosis was projected from 2022 to 2035 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The global agestandardized prevalence, mortality and DALYs rates of cystic echinococcosis were 7.69/10<sup>5</sup> [95% <i>UI</i>: (6.27/10<sup>5</sup>, 9.51/10<sup>5</sup>)], 0.02/10<sup>5</sup> [95% <i>UI</i>: (0.01/10<sup>5</sup>, 0.02/10<sup>5</sup>)], and 1.32/10<sup>5</sup> [95% <i>UI</i>: (0.99/10<sup>5</sup>, 1.69/10<sup>5</sup>)] in 2021. The global age-standardized prevalence of cystic echinococcosis appeared a tendency towards a rise by 0.14% per year from 1990 to 2021, and the global age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates of cystic echinococcosis appeared a tendency towards a decline by 4.68% and 4.01% per year from 1990 to 2021, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that global age-standardized prevalence of cystic echinococcosis appeared a tendency towards a decline from 1990 to 2000 [annual percent change (APC) = -0.66%, 95% confidence interval (<i>CI</i>): (-0.70%, -0.61%)] and from 2005 to 2015 [APC = -0.88%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (-0.93%, -0.82%)], and towards a rise from 2000 to 2005 [APC = 3.68%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (3.49%, 3.87%)] and from 2015 to 2021 [APC=0.30%, 95%<i>CI</i>: (0.19%, 0.40%)].Theagestandardized prevalence (<i>r</i> = -0.17, <i>P</i> < 0.05), mortality (<i>r</i> = -0.67, <i>P</i> < 0.05) and DALYs rates of cystic echinococcosis (<i>r</i> = -0.60, <i>P</i> < 0.05) all correlated negatively with SDI across 21 geographical regions from 1990 to 2021, and the age-standardized mortality (<i>r</i> = -0.61, <i>P</i> < 0.05) and DALYs rates (<i>r</i> = -0.44, <i>P</i> < 0.05) both correlated negatively with SDI across 204 countries and territories in 2021. Frontier analysis revealed that the age-standardized DALYs rate of cystic echinococcosis was still not in line with the frontier in some high-SDI countries or territories. In addition, the global age-standardized prevalence was projected with the BAPC model to appear a tendency towards a rise among both men [estimated annual percent change (EAPC) = 0.18%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (0.13%, 0.23%)] and women [EAPC = 0.29%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (0.24%, 0.34%)] from 2022 to 2035, and the global age-standardized mortality [men: EAPC = -4.71%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (-4.71%, -4.37%); women: EAPC = -4.74%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (-4.74%, -4.74%)] and DALYs rates [men: EAPC = -3.35%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (-3.36%, -3.34%); women: EAPC = -3.17%, 95% <i>CI</i>: (-3.18%, -3.16%)] were projected to appear a tendency towards a decline among both men and women.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The global burden of cystic echinococcosis appeared an overall tendency towards a decline from 1990 to 2021; however, the global prevalence of cystic echinococcosis is projected to appear a tendency towards a rise from 2022 to 2035. Intensified cystic echinococcosis control programmes are recommended.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":38874,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"中国血吸虫病防治杂志\",\"volume\":\"37 3\",\"pages\":\"255-267\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-08\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"中国血吸虫病防治杂志\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.16250/j.32.1915.2024195\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"Medicine\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"中国血吸虫病防治杂志","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.16250/j.32.1915.2024195","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Medicine","Score":null,"Total":0}
[Analysis and prediction of global burden due to cystic echinococcosis from 1990 to 2035].
Objective: To investigate the trends in the global burden due to cystic echinococcosis from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the global burden of cystic echinococcosis from 2022 to 2035, so as to provide insights into formulation of the cystic echinococcosis control strategy.
Methods: The global age-standardized prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates and their 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) of cystic echinococcosis from 1990 to 2021 were captured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database, and the trends in the global burden of cystic echinococcosis from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model. The associations between the global burden of cystic echinococcosis and socio-demographic index (SDI) were examined using a smoothing spline model and frontier analysis, and the global burden of cystic echinococcosis was projected from 2022 to 2035 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.
Results: The global agestandardized prevalence, mortality and DALYs rates of cystic echinococcosis were 7.69/105 [95% UI: (6.27/105, 9.51/105)], 0.02/105 [95% UI: (0.01/105, 0.02/105)], and 1.32/105 [95% UI: (0.99/105, 1.69/105)] in 2021. The global age-standardized prevalence of cystic echinococcosis appeared a tendency towards a rise by 0.14% per year from 1990 to 2021, and the global age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates of cystic echinococcosis appeared a tendency towards a decline by 4.68% and 4.01% per year from 1990 to 2021, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that global age-standardized prevalence of cystic echinococcosis appeared a tendency towards a decline from 1990 to 2000 [annual percent change (APC) = -0.66%, 95% confidence interval (CI): (-0.70%, -0.61%)] and from 2005 to 2015 [APC = -0.88%, 95% CI: (-0.93%, -0.82%)], and towards a rise from 2000 to 2005 [APC = 3.68%, 95% CI: (3.49%, 3.87%)] and from 2015 to 2021 [APC=0.30%, 95%CI: (0.19%, 0.40%)].Theagestandardized prevalence (r = -0.17, P < 0.05), mortality (r = -0.67, P < 0.05) and DALYs rates of cystic echinococcosis (r = -0.60, P < 0.05) all correlated negatively with SDI across 21 geographical regions from 1990 to 2021, and the age-standardized mortality (r = -0.61, P < 0.05) and DALYs rates (r = -0.44, P < 0.05) both correlated negatively with SDI across 204 countries and territories in 2021. Frontier analysis revealed that the age-standardized DALYs rate of cystic echinococcosis was still not in line with the frontier in some high-SDI countries or territories. In addition, the global age-standardized prevalence was projected with the BAPC model to appear a tendency towards a rise among both men [estimated annual percent change (EAPC) = 0.18%, 95% CI: (0.13%, 0.23%)] and women [EAPC = 0.29%, 95% CI: (0.24%, 0.34%)] from 2022 to 2035, and the global age-standardized mortality [men: EAPC = -4.71%, 95% CI: (-4.71%, -4.37%); women: EAPC = -4.74%, 95% CI: (-4.74%, -4.74%)] and DALYs rates [men: EAPC = -3.35%, 95% CI: (-3.36%, -3.34%); women: EAPC = -3.17%, 95% CI: (-3.18%, -3.16%)] were projected to appear a tendency towards a decline among both men and women.
Conclusions: The global burden of cystic echinococcosis appeared an overall tendency towards a decline from 1990 to 2021; however, the global prevalence of cystic echinococcosis is projected to appear a tendency towards a rise from 2022 to 2035. Intensified cystic echinococcosis control programmes are recommended.
期刊介绍：
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control (ISSN: 1005-6661, CN: 32-1374/R), founded in 1989, is a technical and scientific journal under the supervision of Jiangsu Provincial Health Commission and organised by Jiangsu Institute of Schistosomiasis Control. It is a scientific and technical journal under the supervision of Jiangsu Provincial Health Commission and sponsored by Jiangsu Institute of Schistosomiasis Prevention and Control. The journal carries out the policy of prevention-oriented, control-oriented, nationwide and grassroots, adheres to the tenet of scientific research service for the prevention and treatment of schistosomiasis and other parasitic diseases, and mainly publishes academic papers reflecting the latest achievements and dynamics of prevention and treatment of schistosomiasis and other parasitic diseases, scientific research and management, etc. The main columns are Guest Contributions, Experts‘ Commentary, Experts’ Perspectives, Experts' Forums, Theses, Prevention and Treatment Research, Experimental Research, The main columns include Guest Contributions, Expert Commentaries, Expert Perspectives, Expert Forums, Treatises, Prevention and Control Studies, Experimental Studies, Clinical Studies, Prevention and Control Experiences, Prevention and Control Management, Reviews, Case Reports, and Information, etc. The journal is a useful reference material for the professional and technical personnel of schistosomiasis and parasitic disease prevention and control research, management workers, and teachers and students of medical schools.
The journal is now included in important domestic databases, such as Chinese Core List (8th edition), China Science Citation Database (Core Edition), China Science and Technology Core Journals (Statistical Source Journals), and is also included in MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, EBSCO, Chemical Abstract, Embase, Zoological Record, JSTChina, Ulrichsweb, Western Pacific Region Index Medicus, CABI and other international authoritative databases.
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