{"title":"中国通往碳峰值交通的道路:能源替代和减排战略","authors":"Lanyi Zhang, Dawei Weng, Xiaojuan Wen, Zhengyi Xie, Ting Ke, Xisheng Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.esd.2025.101796","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Achieving carbon peak in the transportation sector is critical for mitigating climate change and promoting sustainable urban development. This study focuses on the Urban Agglomeration on the West Coast of the China Strait (UAWCC), a major economic region with high transportation demand and significant energy consumption. Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, we quantify the key drivers of transportation-related carbon emissions, including energy structure, energy consumption, transport intensity, economic development, and population dynamics. We further apply the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model to simulate energy consumption and emissions from 2020 to 2035 under baseline, low-carbon, and enhanced low-carbon scenarios. The results indicate that without intervention, emissions will continue to rise, whereas under stringent low-carbon policies, emissions could peak by 2030. The analysis also incorporates methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and sulfur dioxide (SO₂), providing a comprehensive assessment of co-benefits for air quality. The research offers valuable insights for policymakers in advancing clean energy adoption, optimizing transport structures, and formulating targeted strategies to support China's carbon peaking goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49209,"journal":{"name":"Energy for Sustainable Development","volume":"88 ","pages":"Article 101796"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Pathways towards carbon-peak transportation in China: Energy alternatives and emission mitigation strategies\",\"authors\":\"Lanyi Zhang, Dawei Weng, Xiaojuan Wen, Zhengyi Xie, Ting Ke, Xisheng Hu\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.esd.2025.101796\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Achieving carbon peak in the transportation sector is critical for mitigating climate change and promoting sustainable urban development. This study focuses on the Urban Agglomeration on the West Coast of the China Strait (UAWCC), a major economic region with high transportation demand and significant energy consumption. Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, we quantify the key drivers of transportation-related carbon emissions, including energy structure, energy consumption, transport intensity, economic development, and population dynamics. We further apply the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model to simulate energy consumption and emissions from 2020 to 2035 under baseline, low-carbon, and enhanced low-carbon scenarios. The results indicate that without intervention, emissions will continue to rise, whereas under stringent low-carbon policies, emissions could peak by 2030. The analysis also incorporates methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and sulfur dioxide (SO₂), providing a comprehensive assessment of co-benefits for air quality. The research offers valuable insights for policymakers in advancing clean energy adoption, optimizing transport structures, and formulating targeted strategies to support China's carbon peaking goals.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49209,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Energy for Sustainable Development\",\"volume\":\"88 \",\"pages\":\"Article 101796\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-31\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Energy for Sustainable Development\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0973082625001462\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Energy for Sustainable Development","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0973082625001462","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Pathways towards carbon-peak transportation in China: Energy alternatives and emission mitigation strategies
Achieving carbon peak in the transportation sector is critical for mitigating climate change and promoting sustainable urban development. This study focuses on the Urban Agglomeration on the West Coast of the China Strait (UAWCC), a major economic region with high transportation demand and significant energy consumption. Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, we quantify the key drivers of transportation-related carbon emissions, including energy structure, energy consumption, transport intensity, economic development, and population dynamics. We further apply the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model to simulate energy consumption and emissions from 2020 to 2035 under baseline, low-carbon, and enhanced low-carbon scenarios. The results indicate that without intervention, emissions will continue to rise, whereas under stringent low-carbon policies, emissions could peak by 2030. The analysis also incorporates methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and sulfur dioxide (SO₂), providing a comprehensive assessment of co-benefits for air quality. The research offers valuable insights for policymakers in advancing clean energy adoption, optimizing transport structures, and formulating targeted strategies to support China's carbon peaking goals.
期刊介绍:
Published on behalf of the International Energy Initiative, Energy for Sustainable Development is the journal for decision makers, managers, consultants, policy makers, planners and researchers in both government and non-government organizations. It publishes original research and reviews about energy in developing countries, sustainable development, energy resources, technologies, policies and interactions.