Can digital inclusive finance suppress energy ecological footprint? moderated mediation effect test based on technological innovation

Within the context of energy conservation, emission reduction, and the development of digital inclusion financial (DIF), this study explores the relationship between DIF and the energy ecological footprint (EEF). Using panel data from 30 provinces in China spanning 2011 to 2021, it employs a moderated mediation effect model to empirically analyze the mechanisms through which DIF affects the EEF. The findings reveal that DIF can mitigate the growth of the EEF. Specifically, it achieves this by promoting industrial structure upgrading, which in turn curbs EEF expansion. Furthermore, technological innovation enhances the positive impact of DIF on industrial structure upgrading, thereby amplifying the suppressive effect of industrial transformation on the EEF. Additional analysis highlights that regional difference—such as government digital governance capacity, environmental and financial regulations, digital infrastructure development, and digital usage—significantly influence the extent to which DIF inhibits EEF growth. The study also finds that DIF not only fosters economic inclusiveness but also demonstrates an energy ecological inclusiveness effect. Its marginal utility is particularly pronounced in regions with lower economic development and higher EEF. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the theoretical linkage between DIF and the EEF. It also provides valuable references and decision-making insights for leveraging DIF to enhance energy efficiency and support the achievement of the “dual-carbon” goals.