Public health impact of adjuvanted RSVPreF3 vaccine in older adults: a modeling study in nine countries in Middle East and North Africa.

Background: The adjuvanted RSV prefusion F protein vaccine (adjuvanted RSVPreF3) can protect older adults against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection and RSV-related lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD). We modeled the burden of RSV and the potential public health impact of RSV vaccination in adults ≥60 years in nine countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

Research design and methods: A Markov model was adapted to the settings of Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. RSV acute respiratory infection (ARI) cases, LRTD-related pneumonia, hospitalizations, and deaths were computed over a five-year time horizon assuming no vaccination, and assuming adjuvanted RSVPreF3 vaccination coverage rates of 30% and 70%. Sensitivity of key inputs was explored using one-way sensitivity analyses.

Results: Across the considered countries, 9.1 million RSV ARI cases, including 4.6 million LRTD, were projected in adults ≥60 years over 5 years. A 30% coverage with a single dose of adjuvanted RSVPreF3 would prevent 1,052,191 RSV ARI cases (including 677,794 LRTD), 56,642 hospitalizations 52,138 pneumonia cases, and 5,377 deaths.

Conclusions: An important part of the substantial RSV burden in adults ≥60 years in the selected MENA countries could be prevented through vaccination with adjuvanted RSVPreF3.