伊朗西北部和西部农业气候指数变化分析

Q2 Environmental Science
Hassan Heydari, Alireza Movaghari
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引用次数: 0

摘要

温度是农业中重要的气候因子之一,其任何变化都会影响农产品的生长和生产过程。今天,由于气候变化的发生,研究这一问题的重要性,特别是在农业方面,就对世界人民粮食安全的影响而言,变得尤为重要。基于此,本研究以1985-2019年伊朗西北和西部17个气象站的最低气温、最高气温和平均气温为变量,计算了不同温度阈值下的5个降温指数和6个供暖指数,并采用Mann-Kendall(结合Sen’s斜率估计)和创新趋势分析(ITA)两种方法进行趋势分析。分析发现,大部分站点的降温指数都发生了时移,但周期持续时间缩短。从加热指数来看,在大多数站点,随着不同阈值生长季节长度的增加,也会出现热应激,这对作物的生长有不利影响。调查显示,该地区北部的马拉赫(Maragheh)和南部的霍拉姆阿巴德(Khorram Abad)两个站点变化最大。同时发现,ITA与Mann-Kendall方法在显示趋势类型上差异不大,ITA显示的变化方式更为合理。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analysis of changes in agro-climatic indices in northwest and west of Iran
Temperature is one of the important climatic factors in agriculture, any change of which can affect the process of growth and production of agricultural products. Today, due to the occurrence of climate change, the importance of examining this issue, especially in agriculture, in terms of the impact on the food security of the people of the world, has become particularly important. Based on this, in this research, using the variables of minimum temperature, maximum temperature and average temperature in 17 meteorological stations in the northwest and west of Iran in the time period of 1985-2019, 5 cooling indices and 6 heating indices (at different temperature thresholds) were calculated and then trend analysis was done using two methods, Mann-Kendall (along with Sen’s slope estimator) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA). Based on the analysis, it was found that the cooling indices in most of the stations have undergone a time shift while reducing the duration of the period. From the point of view of heating indices, in most stations, along with increasing the length of the growing season at different thresholds, thermal stress has also occurred, which has a negative effect on the growth of crops. Investigations showed that the two stations of Maragheh (in the north of the region) and Khorram Abad (in the south) had the most changes. It was also found that the ITA and the Mann-Kendall methods have little difference in showing the type of trend and the ITA shows the changes in a more reasonable way.
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来源期刊
Environmental Challenges
Environmental Challenges Environmental Science-Environmental Engineering
CiteScore
8.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
249
审稿时长
8 weeks
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