Temperatures and trust: Survey evidence on the role of climate in shaping trust in people and institutions

Using survey data from 22,964 individuals across 298 regions in 27 countries in Europe and Central Asia, we show that within a country, individuals who experienced lower temperatures when growing up exhibit lower trust in people. Such individuals also have reduced level of trust for domestic political and non-political institutions like the president, parliament, national and local governments, political parties, courts, banks, and the church. Our evidence is less consistent with economic theories that suggest that harsh climatic conditions promote trust via the need to cooperate with strangers. Instead, it aligns more closely with neuroscientific and social psychology theories which posit that physical warmth promotes interpersonal trust and a sense of belonging.