Assessment of “possible triangle” in natural gas resource-based provinces of China: Spatiotemporal differentiation investigations

The uneven distribution of resources has caused an “impossible triangle” dilemma, hindering the high-quality development of the national natural gas industry. Achieving a “possible triangle” in regional natural gas industries is crucial for promoting energy transition. However, studies exploring the “possible triangle” in natural gas resource-based areas remain limited. The present study proposes using the coordinated development of safety, economic, and green indicators to examine the “possible triangle” of the regional natural gas industry. With provincial data from 2011 to 2022, an assessment framework is developed to investigate the coupling coordination degree of safety, economy, and environmental sustainability, as well as its spatiotemporal distribution characteristics within the natural gas production area in Northwest China. The findings indicate an upward trend in the coupling coordination degree during the study period, transitioning from “mild dysfunction” to “good coordination.” Regional disparities gradually narrowed, with polarization effects weakening over time. Spatially, the coupling coordination levels across provinces steadily improved, exhibiting spatial dependencies that expanded from peripheral regions toward central areas. With these findings, policy recommendations are proposed to achieve the “possible triangle” by fostering collaboration among governments, industry stakeholders, and regional actors. This study presents a Chinese case study on the global energy transition, offering new insights into integrating safety, economic viability, and green policies within the natural gas industry.