Mapping Cu–Au mineral potential (IOCG and Cu–Au polymetallic) in the Northern Copper Belt, Carajás Mineral Province: A data-driven, mineral systems-based approach

Advances in exploration targeting and artificial intelligence have substantially improved mineral potential mapping, but few regional-scale studies have evaluated on the Carajás Mineral Province despite its global metallogenic importance. Hence, we conducted a district-scale study in the Northern Copper Belt, which hosts Brazil’s largest iron oxide–copper–gold (IOCG) deposit, Salobo. Using a mineral systems-based approach, we developed prospectivity models for additional and concealed IOCG deposits. Two copper systems were delineated: (i) an IOCG-type system with multiple mineralizing pulses at 2.72 Ga and 2.55 Ga, and (ii) a granite-related system associated with Paleoproterozoic A-type granites (∼1.88 Ga), linked to smaller-scale Cu–Au polymetallic mineralization in brittle structures. Mapping was performed using GIS-based spatial modeling and Random Forest classification. Key geological criteria and evidential maps were based on geological, geophysical, and mineral resource datasets. The resulting maps delineated high-potential Cu–Au zones, several overlapping known deposits. Structural frameworks and airborne magnetic data were the most significant predictive factors. Statistical validations using stratified k-fold cross-validation confirmed high model accuracies. The final integrated model reached 0.875 (±0.20) training accuracy and 0.866 in testing. Spatial validation using the improved Prediction–Area plot further supported the model’s robustness, with all known occurrences captured within 3,7% of the study area. Field validation corroborated model predictions, reinforcing its reliability. Several new high-potential zones without known deposits were identified, and five key targets were prioritized based on scale, continuity, and favorability. These results reinforce the effectiveness of a data-driven mineral systems approach for district-scale exploration in Carajás.