Francesco Maria Sabatini, Michele Di Musciano, Alessandro Chiarucci
{"title":"利用年分辨时间序列分析植物群落组成的年际变异、方向性变化和假周转","authors":"Francesco Maria Sabatini, Michele Di Musciano, Alessandro Chiarucci","doi":"10.1111/jvs.70052","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Questions</h3>\n \n <p>Change in species composition over time is the result of both interannual variability, that is, year-to-year fluctuations due to weather patterns or demographic processes, and directional change, following succession or changing climatic conditions. Quantifying each component is difficult due to the confounding effects of pseudoturnover (i.e., apparent turnover due to observer error). Can yearly-resolved vegetation plot time series be used to quantify the relative contribution of these components of change, while controlling for pseudoturnover?</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Location</h3>\n \n <p>A European beech (<i>Fagus sylvatica</i>) forest in Central Apennines, Italy.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Methods</h3>\n \n <p>We developed an approach based on matrix decomposition and PERMANOVA to disentangle the effect of pseudoturnover, directional change, and interannual variability across nine permanent vegetation plots resurveyed for thirteen consecutive years, comparing the herb layer in a newly formed canopy gap, at the gap margins, and in the forest interior. We used helical graphs, generalized linear models, and non-metric multidimensional scaling to compare the timing and pace of vegetation change.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Results</h3>\n \n <p>Interannual variability and directional change accounted for similar shares of overall variation (26.7% and 28.9%, respectively). While pseudoturnover accounted for a modest 0.4%, ignoring it would result in a substantial overestimation of interannual variability. Overall, the herb layer reacted vigorously to disturbance-triggered changes in light conditions. Species richness increased from 11 to 23.3 in canopy gaps but remained stable at the gap margin and in the forest interior. The rate of change was 3.0 species/year immediately after disturbance and slowed down to 0.3 species/year after 11 years.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\n \n <p>The composition of the herb layer varied substantially in the study period and showed a marked year-to-year variation even in the forest interior, where light conditions were relatively stable. A proper estimation of the interannual variability of vegetation, while crucial to benchmark the effects of disturbance in forests, should account for the confounding effect of pseudoturnover.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":49965,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Vegetation Science","volume":"36 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jvs.70052","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Using Yearly-Resolved Time Series to Disentangle Interannual Variability, Directional Change, and Pseudoturnover in Plant Community Composition\",\"authors\":\"Francesco Maria Sabatini, Michele Di Musciano, Alessandro Chiarucci\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/jvs.70052\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Questions</h3>\\n \\n <p>Change in species composition over time is the result of both interannual variability, that is, year-to-year fluctuations due to weather patterns or demographic processes, and directional change, following succession or changing climatic conditions. Quantifying each component is difficult due to the confounding effects of pseudoturnover (i.e., apparent turnover due to observer error). Can yearly-resolved vegetation plot time series be used to quantify the relative contribution of these components of change, while controlling for pseudoturnover?</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Location</h3>\\n \\n <p>A European beech (<i>Fagus sylvatica</i>) forest in Central Apennines, Italy.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Methods</h3>\\n \\n <p>We developed an approach based on matrix decomposition and PERMANOVA to disentangle the effect of pseudoturnover, directional change, and interannual variability across nine permanent vegetation plots resurveyed for thirteen consecutive years, comparing the herb layer in a newly formed canopy gap, at the gap margins, and in the forest interior. We used helical graphs, generalized linear models, and non-metric multidimensional scaling to compare the timing and pace of vegetation change.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Results</h3>\\n \\n <p>Interannual variability and directional change accounted for similar shares of overall variation (26.7% and 28.9%, respectively). While pseudoturnover accounted for a modest 0.4%, ignoring it would result in a substantial overestimation of interannual variability. Overall, the herb layer reacted vigorously to disturbance-triggered changes in light conditions. Species richness increased from 11 to 23.3 in canopy gaps but remained stable at the gap margin and in the forest interior. The rate of change was 3.0 species/year immediately after disturbance and slowed down to 0.3 species/year after 11 years.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\\n \\n <p>The composition of the herb layer varied substantially in the study period and showed a marked year-to-year variation even in the forest interior, where light conditions were relatively stable. A proper estimation of the interannual variability of vegetation, while crucial to benchmark the effects of disturbance in forests, should account for the confounding effect of pseudoturnover.</p>\\n </section>\\n </div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49965,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Vegetation Science\",\"volume\":\"36 4\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jvs.70052\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Vegetation Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jvs.70052\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Vegetation Science","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jvs.70052","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Using Yearly-Resolved Time Series to Disentangle Interannual Variability, Directional Change, and Pseudoturnover in Plant Community Composition
Questions
Change in species composition over time is the result of both interannual variability, that is, year-to-year fluctuations due to weather patterns or demographic processes, and directional change, following succession or changing climatic conditions. Quantifying each component is difficult due to the confounding effects of pseudoturnover (i.e., apparent turnover due to observer error). Can yearly-resolved vegetation plot time series be used to quantify the relative contribution of these components of change, while controlling for pseudoturnover?
Location
A European beech (Fagus sylvatica) forest in Central Apennines, Italy.
Methods
We developed an approach based on matrix decomposition and PERMANOVA to disentangle the effect of pseudoturnover, directional change, and interannual variability across nine permanent vegetation plots resurveyed for thirteen consecutive years, comparing the herb layer in a newly formed canopy gap, at the gap margins, and in the forest interior. We used helical graphs, generalized linear models, and non-metric multidimensional scaling to compare the timing and pace of vegetation change.
Results
Interannual variability and directional change accounted for similar shares of overall variation (26.7% and 28.9%, respectively). While pseudoturnover accounted for a modest 0.4%, ignoring it would result in a substantial overestimation of interannual variability. Overall, the herb layer reacted vigorously to disturbance-triggered changes in light conditions. Species richness increased from 11 to 23.3 in canopy gaps but remained stable at the gap margin and in the forest interior. The rate of change was 3.0 species/year immediately after disturbance and slowed down to 0.3 species/year after 11 years.
Conclusions
The composition of the herb layer varied substantially in the study period and showed a marked year-to-year variation even in the forest interior, where light conditions were relatively stable. A proper estimation of the interannual variability of vegetation, while crucial to benchmark the effects of disturbance in forests, should account for the confounding effect of pseudoturnover.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Vegetation Science publishes papers on all aspects of plant community ecology, with particular emphasis on papers that develop new concepts or methods, test theory, identify general patterns, or that are otherwise likely to interest a broad international readership. Papers may focus on any aspect of vegetation science, e.g. community structure (including community assembly and plant functional types), biodiversity (including species richness and composition), spatial patterns (including plant geography and landscape ecology), temporal changes (including demography, community dynamics and palaeoecology) and processes (including ecophysiology), provided the focus is on increasing our understanding of plant communities. The Journal publishes papers on the ecology of a single species only if it plays a key role in structuring plant communities. Papers that apply ecological concepts, theories and methods to the vegetation management, conservation and restoration, and papers on vegetation survey should be directed to our associate journal, Applied Vegetation Science journal.
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