{"title":"新型城镇化与水资源安全的动态耦合分析——基于系统动力学的中国实证研究","authors":"Lei Wang, Xia Zeng, Xiaozhou Huang","doi":"10.1002/ldr.70097","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Urbanization and water resource management are critical challenges facing many countries, especially in rapidly developing economies like China. This study investigates the dynamic coupling between new‐type urbanization (NTU) and water resources security (WRS), employing a system dynamics (SD) modeling approach. Four distinct development scenarios (baseline scenario, green low‐carbon scenario, high growth scenario, and coordinated development scenario) are simulated to evaluate the impact of urbanization trajectories and water management policies on water consumption, water security, and ecological sustainability. The model incorporates key variables such as per capita GDP, urbanization rate, water scarcity, and pollution to capture the feedback loops between urbanization and water resource dynamics. The findings indicate that the coordinated development scenario, which integrates water efficiency measures and ecological protection policies, demonstrates the most promising outcomes for long‐term water security. In contrast, the high growth scenario leads to increased water demand and significant pressures on water resources, whereas the green low‐carbon scenario emphasizes sustainable growth by reducing water consumption and minimizing environmental impacts. This study provides valuable insights into the trade‐offs between economic growth, population increase, and water resource sustainability, offering policy recommendations for achieving balanced urbanization and sustainable water management. The results underscore the need for integrated policies that combine urban growth management with water conservation and ecological protection.","PeriodicalId":203,"journal":{"name":"Land Degradation & Development","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Dynamic Coupling Analysis of New‐Type Urbanization and Water Resources Security: A System Dynamics‐Based Empirical Study From China\",\"authors\":\"Lei Wang, Xia Zeng, Xiaozhou Huang\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/ldr.70097\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Urbanization and water resource management are critical challenges facing many countries, especially in rapidly developing economies like China. This study investigates the dynamic coupling between new‐type urbanization (NTU) and water resources security (WRS), employing a system dynamics (SD) modeling approach. Four distinct development scenarios (baseline scenario, green low‐carbon scenario, high growth scenario, and coordinated development scenario) are simulated to evaluate the impact of urbanization trajectories and water management policies on water consumption, water security, and ecological sustainability. The model incorporates key variables such as per capita GDP, urbanization rate, water scarcity, and pollution to capture the feedback loops between urbanization and water resource dynamics. The findings indicate that the coordinated development scenario, which integrates water efficiency measures and ecological protection policies, demonstrates the most promising outcomes for long‐term water security. In contrast, the high growth scenario leads to increased water demand and significant pressures on water resources, whereas the green low‐carbon scenario emphasizes sustainable growth by reducing water consumption and minimizing environmental impacts. This study provides valuable insights into the trade‐offs between economic growth, population increase, and water resource sustainability, offering policy recommendations for achieving balanced urbanization and sustainable water management. The results underscore the need for integrated policies that combine urban growth management with water conservation and ecological protection.\",\"PeriodicalId\":203,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Land Degradation & Development\",\"volume\":\"3 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Land Degradation & Development\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.70097\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Land Degradation & Development","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.70097","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Dynamic Coupling Analysis of New‐Type Urbanization and Water Resources Security: A System Dynamics‐Based Empirical Study From China
Urbanization and water resource management are critical challenges facing many countries, especially in rapidly developing economies like China. This study investigates the dynamic coupling between new‐type urbanization (NTU) and water resources security (WRS), employing a system dynamics (SD) modeling approach. Four distinct development scenarios (baseline scenario, green low‐carbon scenario, high growth scenario, and coordinated development scenario) are simulated to evaluate the impact of urbanization trajectories and water management policies on water consumption, water security, and ecological sustainability. The model incorporates key variables such as per capita GDP, urbanization rate, water scarcity, and pollution to capture the feedback loops between urbanization and water resource dynamics. The findings indicate that the coordinated development scenario, which integrates water efficiency measures and ecological protection policies, demonstrates the most promising outcomes for long‐term water security. In contrast, the high growth scenario leads to increased water demand and significant pressures on water resources, whereas the green low‐carbon scenario emphasizes sustainable growth by reducing water consumption and minimizing environmental impacts. This study provides valuable insights into the trade‐offs between economic growth, population increase, and water resource sustainability, offering policy recommendations for achieving balanced urbanization and sustainable water management. The results underscore the need for integrated policies that combine urban growth management with water conservation and ecological protection.
期刊介绍:
Land Degradation & Development is an international journal which seeks to promote rational study of the recognition, monitoring, control and rehabilitation of degradation in terrestrial environments. The journal focuses on:
- what land degradation is;
- what causes land degradation;
- the impacts of land degradation
- the scale of land degradation;
- the history, current status or future trends of land degradation;
- avoidance, mitigation and control of land degradation;
- remedial actions to rehabilitate or restore degraded land;
- sustainable land management.