慢性病护理管理数字化的战略方案：里斯本初级卫生保健环境的10年前瞻性案例研究

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124290

Mariana Peyroteo , Luís Velez Lapão

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在初级卫生保健（PHC）环境中管理慢性病面临着持续的挑战，特别是在可及性、沟通和护理协调方面。虽然数字技术的实施仍不一致，但这些工具在提高医疗效率和患者参与度方面具有巨大潜力。目的：本研究探讨数字工具如何支持里斯本南部初级保健医院的慢性护理。报告探讨了促成因素、整合障碍以及政策在塑造数字化转型中的作用。方法采用前瞻性案例研究方法，分析到2032年数字医疗实施的长期影响。采用参与式讲习班和情景规划来确定战略不确定性和合理的未来情景。结果：数字化初级保健、NHS转型和气候紧急情况这三个情景显示了技术、治理转变和环境变化的影响。关键的推动因素是互操作性、人工智能决策和劳动力培训。障碍包括基础设施差距和数字卫生素养低。研究结果表明，数字化提高了护理的连续性、资源效率和患者参与度。结论：研究结果强调了在支持性政策、基础设施投资和持续的劳动力培训的支持下，数字健康在以phc为基础的慢性护理中的变革潜力。未来的研究应探索实施策略和治理模式，以支持初级保健中可扩展、公平和可持续的数字健康采用。

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Strategic scenarios for the digitalisation of chronic disease care management: A 10-year foresight case study in Lisbon's primary healthcare setting

Background

Managing chronic diseases in Primary Healthcare (PHC) settings presents persistent challenges, particularly in accessibility, communication, and care coordination. While the implementation of digital technologies remains inconsistent, these tools hold significant potential to improve healthcare efficiency and patient engagement.

Objectives

This study explores how digital tools can support chronic care in PHC settings in southern Lisbon. It examines enabling factors, integration barriers, and the role of policy in shaping digital transformation.

Methods

Using a foresight case study approach, the study analyses the long-term impact of digital health implementation by 2032. Participatory workshops and scenario planning were employed to identify strategic uncertainties and plausible future scenarios.

Results

Three scenarios—Digital PHC, NHS Transition, and Climate Exigency—show the effects of technology, governance shifts, and environmental change. Key enablers are interoperability, AI decision-making, and workforce training. Barriers include infrastructure gaps and low digital health literacy. Findings suggest that digitalisation improves care continuity, resource efficiency, and patient engagement.

Conclusions

The findings highlight the transformative potential of digital health in PHC-based chronic care, given supportive policies, infrastructure investment, and ongoing workforce training. Future research should explore implementation strategies and governance models to support scalable, equitable, and sustainable digital health adoption in PHC.

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Technological Forecasting and Social Change Multiple-

CiteScore

21.30

自引率

10.80%

发文量

813

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