Impact of information and communication technology development on China’s carbon emissions

In recent years information and communication technology (ICT) development and its relationship with carbon emissions has become a significant research focus. Using data from 30 Chinese provinces and cities covering 2010–2022, we conduct an empirical study on the impact mechanism of ICT on carbon emissions employing a spatial Durbin model. Six relevant results emerge. 1) ICT development increases local carbon emissions and reduces surrounding carbon emissions but reduces overall carbon emissions. 2) ICT development can indirectly reduce local carbon emissions by promoting industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation. 3) Technological innovation has significant spillover effects, wherein ICT development reduces carbon emissions in surrounding areas, which is generated by technological innovation, but the spatial spillover effect of industrial structure optimisation is insignificant. 4) Heterogeneity tests reveal that ICT development in western and eastern regions increases local carbon emissions, reduces carbon emissions in surrounding areas and reduces total carbon emissions. Furthermore, the carbon emissions reduction effect in the western region is better than that in the eastern region, ICT development in the northeast region reduces carbon emissions in local and surrounding areas and ICT development in the central region has no significant impact on local and surrounding carbon emissions. In addition, the carbon emissions reduction effect of ICT is better in ICT-intensive areas. 5) Segmented regression reveals that the inhibitory effect of ICT development on carbon emissions during the 2010–2016 period was greater than that during the 2016–2022 period. 6) We also compare and analyse the impact of ICT manufacturing and service sectors on carbon emissions, the impact of ICT input on carbon emissions in the production process of different industries and the moderating effect of energy structure on the impact of ICT development on carbon emissions. Finally, we present targeted policy recommendations and propose future research directions.