Assessing blue growth in coastal China: Spatio-temporal disparities and guidance for sustainable marine governance

Driven by global sustainability agendas, Blue Growth (BG) has emerged as a key paradigm for harmonizing economic development with social and ecological goals. This study assesses BG progress from 2012 to 2022 across 54 coastal cities in China's three major marine economic zones (MEZs) using a multidimensional framework that integrates economic development, social inclusion, and ecological sustainability. Through advanced tools including the Dagum Gini coefficient, Markov chain models, and Random Forest regression, we analyze BG's spatio-temporal dynamics. We find that: (1) While BG has advanced overall, regional disparities are widening, with ‘BG poles’ concentrated in major deltas. (2) BG development shows strong path dependence and spatial spillover effects, leading to ‘club convergence’ that reinforces regional imbalances. (3) Economic growth remains the main driver, while the diminishing role of social inclusion threatens equity and long-term sustainability. These findings highlight the need for a strategic shift in China's coastal governance towards more balanced, inclusive, and spatially coordinated policies to fully realize its sustainable BG potential.