探索印度的气候趋势和极端气候：1980年至2023年的温度和降雨研究

IF 1.8 4区地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics Pub Date : 2025-07-22 DOI:10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106596

V. Guhan , A. Dharma Raju , K. Rama Krishna , K. Nagaratna

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在利用统计和时间序列方法评估印度各地温度和降雨的时间趋势、季节模式和极端事件，为气候适应战略提供信息。利用广义帕累托分布、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、小波变换、ARIMA预测和异常检测等统计技术，利用1980年至2023年的IMD网格数据，探讨了这些气候参数的季节性和长期趋势、周期性和异常。结果显示出明显的季节波动和模式，Tmax呈现统计学上显著的上升趋势，Tmin和降雨量没有明显的模式。小波变换分析显示了强的季节周期和周期模式。ARIMA预测项目持续了Tmax、Tmin和降雨量的季节性波动和趋势。异常检测识别了几个异常温度和降雨值的实例，突出了监测极端天气事件的重要性。这些结果强调了适应性气候恢复策略的必要性，以减轻气候不可预测性的影响，并为气候分析、预测和环境管理提供了有见地的信息。

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Exploring climate trends and extremes in India: A study of temperature and rainfall from 1980 to 2023

This study aims to evaluate the temporal trends, seasonal patterns, and extreme events in temperature and rainfall across India, using statistical and time series approaches to inform climate resilience strategies. Utilizing a range of statistical techniques including Generalized Pareto Distribution, Mann-Kendall trend test, Wavelet Transform, ARIMA forecasting, and Anomaly Detection, we explored the seasonal and long-term trends, periodicities, and anomalies in these climatic parameters using IMD gridded data from 1980 to 2023. The findings reveal notable seasonal fluctuations and patterns, with Tmax displaying a statistically significant upward trend and Tmin and rainfall displaying no discernible patterns. Strong seasonal cycles and periodic patterns are shown via wavelet transform analysis. ARIMA forecasting projects continued seasonal fluctuations and trends for Tmax, Tmin, and rainfall. Anomaly detection identifies several instances of unusual temperature and rainfall values, highlighting the importance of monitoring extreme weather events. These results highlight the necessity of adaptive climate resilience strategies to lessen the effects of climatic unpredictability and offer insightful information for climate analysis, forecasting, and environmental management.

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来源期刊

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

4.10

自引率

5.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (JASTP) is an international journal concerned with the inter-disciplinary science of the Earth''s atmospheric and space environment, especially the highly varied and highly variable physical phenomena that occur in this natural laboratory and the processes that couple them. The journal covers the physical processes operating in the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, magnetosphere, the Sun, interplanetary medium, and heliosphere. Phenomena occurring in other "spheres", solar influences on climate, and supporting laboratory measurements are also considered. The journal deals especially with the coupling between the different regions. Solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other energetic events on the Sun create interesting and important perturbations in the near-Earth space environment. The physics of such "space weather" is central to the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics and the journal welcomes papers that lead in the direction of a predictive understanding of the coupled system. Regarding the upper atmosphere, the subjects of aeronomy, geomagnetism and geoelectricity, auroral phenomena, radio wave propagation, and plasma instabilities, are examples within the broad field of solar-terrestrial physics which emphasise the energy exchange between the solar wind, the magnetospheric and ionospheric plasmas, and the neutral gas. In the lower atmosphere, topics covered range from mesoscale to global scale dynamics, to atmospheric electricity, lightning and its effects, and to anthropogenic changes.