[Effect of blood pressure outcome on the risk of arteriosclerosis in non-hypertensive individuals].

Objective: To investigate the impact of blood pressure outcomes on the risk of arteriosclerosis in non-hypertensive populations. Methods: This study was a retrospective cohort study. All data were derived from Kailuan Cohort. Non-hypertensive individuals who completed two brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) measurements between January 2014 and December 2019 (using the first measurement as the baseline and the second as the follow-up) were enrolled, and clinical data such as blood pressure and baPWV were collected. According to the blood pressure level at baseline and follow-up, participants were divided into new-onset hypertension group (no hypertension at baseline but diagnosed at follow-up) and non-hypertension group (no hypertension at both baseline and follow-up). Multiple linear regression and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the impact of new-onset hypertension on arteriosclerosis progression. Subgroup analysis further classified participants into six blood pressure transition categories: normal-maintained, normal-to-high-normal, normal-to-hypertensive, high-normal-to-normal, high-normal-maintained, and high-normal-to-hypertensive groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess the impact of different blood pressure outcomes on arteriosclerosis progression. Results: A total of 7 049 participants were enrolled, with the age of (40.45±9.04) years, including 3 645 males (51.71%). There were 800 cases in the new-onset hypertension group and 6 249 individuals in the non-hypertension group. During follow-up, arteriosclerosis occurred in 2 154 cases (30.56%). Multivariable linear regression analysis revealed a positive correlation between new-onset hypertension and baPWV levels. The baPWV in the new-onset hypertension group was significantly higher by 63.94 cm/s compared to the non-hypertension group (β=63.94, P<0.01). Additionally, the risk of arteriosclerosis in the new-onset hypertension group was 2.09 times that of the non-hypertension group (OR=2.09, 95%CI: 1.77-2.46, P<0.01). Subgroup analysis revealed significantly higher arteriosclerosis risks in normal-to-high-normal (OR=1.65, 95%CI 1.38-1.98, P<0.01), normal-to-hypertensive (OR=2.47, 95%CI 1.70-3.59, P<0.01), high-normal-maintained (OR=1.50, 95%CI 1.21-1.86, P<0.01), and high-normal-to-hypertensive groups (OR=2.86, 95%CI 2.20-3.73, P<0.01) than normal-maintained group, except for a non-significant difference in high-normal-to-normal group (OR=0.95, 95%CI 0.74-1.20, P>0.05). Conclusion: Blood pressure outcome in non-hypertensive populations is closely related to arteriosclerosis risk. Progression to or maintenance of high-normal blood pressure or higher levels substantially increases arteriosclerosis risk, while regression from high-normal to normal blood pressure shows no significant increase in arteriosclerosis risk.