Poultry Food Assess Risk Model for Salmonella and Chicken Gizzards: IV. Consumer Response Step

A Poultry Food Assess Risk Model (PFARM) for Salmonella and chicken gizzards was developed and published in four steps because of its complexity. In the present study, outputs from the first three steps were combined to predict consumer responses of no response, infection, illness, hospitalization, and death. The PFARM found that salmonellosis (illness, hospitalization, or death) was a rare event (15 cases per 100,000 consumers) that occurred by random chance when multiple risk factors occurred together. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the risk factors for salmonellosis were cross-contamination and growth on lettuce, Salmonella serotype and number at consumption, buffering capacity of the meal, and consumer health and immunity. Scenario analysis indicated that initial Salmonella prevalence, number, and serotype changed (p ≤ 0.05) over time in the simulated production chain but were poor indicators of salmonellosis because they did not consider the identified risk factors for salmonellosis. Based on lessons learned in the COVID-19 pandemic, the economics of salmonellosis, and the results of the current study, it was concluded that the best indicator of poultry food safety was the PFARM prediction of the cases of severe salmonellosis (hospitalization and death) per lot (1000 kg) of chicken gizzards. Interestingly, cases of severe salmonellosis per lot of chicken gizzards did not change across time in the production chain despite significant changes in Salmonella prevalence, number, and serotype at final product testing. This may explain why the current approach to poultry food safety is not reducing rates of foodborne salmonellosis.