Spatial spillover effects of shared micro-mobility on public transit in medium-sized cities

The rapid expansion of shared micromobility (SMM) is transforming urban transportation in medium-sized cities. This study examines the impact of electric free-floating bike-sharing (Floating E-Bike), free-floating bike-sharing (Floating Bike), and station-based bike-sharing (Station Bike) on public transit ridership in Yancheng, China, using a Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model. Results reveal significant spatial spillover effects, emphasizing the necessity of considering interdependence in transit analyses. A 1% increase in Floating E-Bike usage is associated with a 0.53% decline in transit ridership, while the other two modes show positive associations. Land use analysis indicates that commercial areas exhibit negative direct effects but positive spillover effects, whereas employment areas demonstrate the reverse pattern. By contrast, educational and residential areas consistently generate positive effects. Socio-economic factors, including population density and housing prices, also shape transit ridership. Heterogeneity analysis highlights stronger Floating E-Bike competition in Yancheng’s historic core due to limited parking, restricting SMM-transit integration.