Evaluation of a 3D unstructured grid model for the New York-New Jersey Harbor under different forcing sources

This paper presents an in-depth evaluation of a 3D unstructured grid model under various forcing sources, with a focus on the New York-New Jersey (NY-NJ) harbor. The model is first calibrated and evaluated through control runs, ensuring it accurately captures essential processes around the NY/NJ harbor. The sensitivity experiments highlight the significant roles and contributions of different forcing sources in coastal ocean conditions such as total water level, currents, salinity, and water temperature. Different tidal forcings, including FES2014, TPXO9 v1, and TPXO9 v5, show significant effects on tidal components, total water levels, currents, and water temperature, with minimal impact on salinity. Surface forcings from the HRRR, ERA5, and GFS demonstrate variable influences on water temperature predictions, while total water level, currents, and salinity are less sensitive to the different atmospheric forcing sources. Different open ocean conditions from CMEMS, HYCOM, and GRTOFS exhibited minor impacts on hydrodynamic variables in the inland rivers and estuaries but noticeably affected ocean surface currents and vertical structures of water temperature on the continental shelf. Different river discharges from USGS and NWM show high sensitivities of salinities and upstream water levels while shelf-scale ocean currents and vertical structures of water temperatures are similar across the different river discharges. The findings emphasize the necessity of selecting optimal forcing sources to minimize uncertainties and enhance predictive capabilities, supporting better decision-making in coastal management and hazard mitigation.