{"title":"2100年前金属开采和加工能耗及潜在金属供需失配评价","authors":"Titouan Greffe , Manuele Margni , Cécile Bulle","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108482","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction:</h3><div>Metals are essential for the global energy transition. Energy is required to both extract and process those metals to use them in the global economy. Given the soaring demand for metals until the end of the century, it is unclear whether the mining and metallurgical industry across producing countries will be able to cope with such pressure on supply. We estimate the yearly surplus and deficit of 50 resources across three scenarios of evolution of society as well as global energy consumption for mining and processing those resources.</div></div><div><h3>Methods:</h3><div>We develop the Within Limits Metal Flows (WILMFlo) model which is a stock-driven dynamic material flow analysis of resources over their life cycle. WILMFlo links the extraction of major metals, such as copper, to their byproducts, such as tellurium, using byproduct-to-host ratios. By considering yearly mining capacity, it allows to identify potential discrepancies between demand and supply between 2025 today to 2100 in three socioeconomic scenarios, including a Net Zero scenario. We also explore the evolution of energy consumption for mining resources and for materials fabrication at the global level.</div></div><div><h3>Results:</h3><div>First, we quantify the potential discrepancies between demand and supply of resources, including yearly surplus and deficit. Second, we derive the global metal mining and processing energy cost between 2025 and 2100. In the Net Zero scenario, we identify a potential deficit of lithium between 2028 and 2038. In the three scenarios, currently classified critical elements such as indium, rhenium or gallium are in situation of oversupply over the 21st century.</div></div><div><h3>Discussions and conclusions:</h3><div>The substitution of some energy transition metals such as copper, cobalt and lithium will be key to meet the global demand for mobility and energy storage. Global mining energy consumption is likely to rise during the 21st century but will still remain minor compared to materials processing energy consumption which is two to six times higher than global mining energy consumption. The WILMFlo framework allows to deepen the understanding of energy transition metals potential supply limits and to identify the greatest potential to improve energy efficiency on the primary supply chain.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"223 ","pages":"Article 108482"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Evaluation of metals mining and processing energy consumption and potential metals supply–demand mismatch towards 2100\",\"authors\":\"Titouan Greffe , Manuele Margni , Cécile Bulle\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108482\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>Introduction:</h3><div>Metals are essential for the global energy transition. Energy is required to both extract and process those metals to use them in the global economy. Given the soaring demand for metals until the end of the century, it is unclear whether the mining and metallurgical industry across producing countries will be able to cope with such pressure on supply. We estimate the yearly surplus and deficit of 50 resources across three scenarios of evolution of society as well as global energy consumption for mining and processing those resources.</div></div><div><h3>Methods:</h3><div>We develop the Within Limits Metal Flows (WILMFlo) model which is a stock-driven dynamic material flow analysis of resources over their life cycle. WILMFlo links the extraction of major metals, such as copper, to their byproducts, such as tellurium, using byproduct-to-host ratios. By considering yearly mining capacity, it allows to identify potential discrepancies between demand and supply between 2025 today to 2100 in three socioeconomic scenarios, including a Net Zero scenario. We also explore the evolution of energy consumption for mining resources and for materials fabrication at the global level.</div></div><div><h3>Results:</h3><div>First, we quantify the potential discrepancies between demand and supply of resources, including yearly surplus and deficit. Second, we derive the global metal mining and processing energy cost between 2025 and 2100. In the Net Zero scenario, we identify a potential deficit of lithium between 2028 and 2038. In the three scenarios, currently classified critical elements such as indium, rhenium or gallium are in situation of oversupply over the 21st century.</div></div><div><h3>Discussions and conclusions:</h3><div>The substitution of some energy transition metals such as copper, cobalt and lithium will be key to meet the global demand for mobility and energy storage. Global mining energy consumption is likely to rise during the 21st century but will still remain minor compared to materials processing energy consumption which is two to six times higher than global mining energy consumption. The WILMFlo framework allows to deepen the understanding of energy transition metals potential supply limits and to identify the greatest potential to improve energy efficiency on the primary supply chain.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":21153,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Resources Conservation and Recycling\",\"volume\":\"223 \",\"pages\":\"Article 108482\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":10.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-25\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Resources Conservation and Recycling\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092134492500360X\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092134492500360X","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Evaluation of metals mining and processing energy consumption and potential metals supply–demand mismatch towards 2100
Introduction:
Metals are essential for the global energy transition. Energy is required to both extract and process those metals to use them in the global economy. Given the soaring demand for metals until the end of the century, it is unclear whether the mining and metallurgical industry across producing countries will be able to cope with such pressure on supply. We estimate the yearly surplus and deficit of 50 resources across three scenarios of evolution of society as well as global energy consumption for mining and processing those resources.
Methods:
We develop the Within Limits Metal Flows (WILMFlo) model which is a stock-driven dynamic material flow analysis of resources over their life cycle. WILMFlo links the extraction of major metals, such as copper, to their byproducts, such as tellurium, using byproduct-to-host ratios. By considering yearly mining capacity, it allows to identify potential discrepancies between demand and supply between 2025 today to 2100 in three socioeconomic scenarios, including a Net Zero scenario. We also explore the evolution of energy consumption for mining resources and for materials fabrication at the global level.
Results:
First, we quantify the potential discrepancies between demand and supply of resources, including yearly surplus and deficit. Second, we derive the global metal mining and processing energy cost between 2025 and 2100. In the Net Zero scenario, we identify a potential deficit of lithium between 2028 and 2038. In the three scenarios, currently classified critical elements such as indium, rhenium or gallium are in situation of oversupply over the 21st century.
Discussions and conclusions:
The substitution of some energy transition metals such as copper, cobalt and lithium will be key to meet the global demand for mobility and energy storage. Global mining energy consumption is likely to rise during the 21st century but will still remain minor compared to materials processing energy consumption which is two to six times higher than global mining energy consumption. The WILMFlo framework allows to deepen the understanding of energy transition metals potential supply limits and to identify the greatest potential to improve energy efficiency on the primary supply chain.
期刊介绍:
The journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling welcomes contributions from research, which consider sustainable management and conservation of resources. The journal prioritizes understanding the transformation processes crucial for transitioning toward more sustainable production and consumption systems. It highlights technological, economic, institutional, and policy aspects related to specific resource management practices such as conservation, recycling, and resource substitution, as well as broader strategies like improving resource productivity and restructuring production and consumption patterns.
Contributions may address regional, national, or international scales and can range from individual resources or technologies to entire sectors or systems. Authors are encouraged to explore scientific and methodological issues alongside practical, environmental, and economic implications. However, manuscripts focusing solely on laboratory experiments without discussing their broader implications will not be considered for publication in the journal.