Uncertainty in modelling the demand for minerals from the energy sector at a country-level: a case study of Saudi Arabia

This paper uses a material-flow model to assess Saudi Arabia's material demands during the energy transition, highlighting challenges in country-level estimation through varied demand, supply metrics, and assumptions. Steel, aluminum, and copper show the highest tonnage requirements, but battery materials and rare earth elements have larger relative demands compared to current global production. The study acknowledges a wide range of estimates due to inherently unknowable parameters like technology deployment. A material categorization framework is presented, based on future demand relative to global production and scenario variability. Two key material categories are identified for policy focus: those with high relative demand and low variability, and those with strong relative demand but high variability. The latter requires adaptable security of supply policies to address evolving technology deployments. This categorization aims to guide policymakers in creating targeted strategies for these potentially critical materials.