将社会经济区域纳入奥卡万戈盆地土地利用变化和气候变率下的水资源分析

Blessing Kavhu , Zama Eric Mashimbye , Linda Luvuno , Udita Sanga
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引用次数: 0

摘要

土地利用/土地覆盖(LULC)变化和气候变率对地表水可用性的影响对于跨界水资源管理至关重要。然而,大多数水文模型忽略了流域的社会经济(SE)异质性,可能导致过于简化或不准确的结论。本研究旨在分析在解开LULC变化和气候变率对奥卡万戈流域地表水产量的影响时,将社会经济区域纳入水文分析的价值。利用InVEST产水模型,我们模拟了2004年、2013年和2020年的地表水可用性,结果与观测到的排放数据非常吻合(R2 = 0.88, p <;0.05)。结果表明,流域平均地表水深度从2004年的459 mm下降到2020年的299 mm,减少了35%,与区域干旱趋势和人为压力增加相一致。2004-2013年和2013-2020年期间,气候变率分别解释了81.7%和78.5%的产水量变化。然而,在SE 2、SE 7和SE 13等高度变化区,LULC变化占了50%以上的变化,凸显了水文驱动因素的空间异质性。通过纳入社会经济区划,本研究提供了对地表水动态的更细致和与政策相关的理解,并支持在跨境背景下设计有针对性的、特定区域的水管理策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Integrating socio-economic zones into water resource analysis under land use change and climate variability in the Okavango basin
The impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate variability on surface water availability is critical for informing transboundary water management. However, most hydrological models overlook the socio-economic (SE) heterogeneity of basins, potentially leading to oversimplified or inaccurate conclusions. This study aims to analyze the value of integrating socio-economic zones into hydrological analysis when disentangling the effects of LULC change and climate variability on surface water yield in the Okavango Basin. Using the InVEST water yield model, we simulated surface water availability for the years 2004, 2013, and 2020, achieving strong agreement with observed discharge data (R2 = 0.88, p < 0.05). Results show a basin-wide decline in mean surface water depth from 459 mm in 2004 to 299 mm in 2020, a 35 % reduction, consistent with regional drying trends and increasing anthropogenic pressures. Climate variability emerged as the dominant driver of change, explaining 81.7 % and 78.5 % of water yield variation during 2004–2013 and 2013–2020, respectively. However, in highly modified zones such as SE 2, 7, and 13, LULC change accounted for over 50 % of the variation, underscoring the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological drivers. By incorporating socio-economic zoning, this study offers a more nuanced and policy-relevant understanding of surface water dynamics and supports the design of targeted, zone-specific water management strategies in transboundary contexts.
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