Analysis on the effectiveness of International Maritime Organization’s ‘Areas to be Avoided’ policy on vessel traffic in the Bering Strait (2015–2022)

Numerous cargo and tanker vessels every year transit the Bering Sea, and with decreasing sea ice in the Arctic, increasing levels of travel through the Bering Strait to new shipping routes is a contemporary reality. Increased shipping in the region not only intensifies the impact to remote communities but also causes concern for the safety of vessel operators and the environment. Analyzing existing policy within the Bering Sea is useful to determine policy effectiveness as maritime activity is amplified in the region. To examine changes in traffic patterns from 2015 to 2022, and therefore the effectiveness of existing policy, hot spot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) was conducted on the Bering Strait ‘Areas to be Avoided’ (ATBAs), implemented in 2018 as a part of the International Maritime Organization’s Polar Code. Additionally, hot spot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) was conducted on vessels transiting the region every year (8 of 8 years), frequently (4–7 years), or rarely (1–3 years) to investigate aspects of maritime activity that can impact adherence to the ATBA policy. The analysis conducted on vessel traffic in the Bering Strait from 2015 through 2022 shows that the ATBA policy influenced all vessel types. Determining the effectiveness of current policy in maritime activity in the Bering Strait will be necessary for future policymaking to protect this unique region of Alaska, as well as for the communities who have inhabited it before recorded history.