在不断变化的世界中评估具有流行病和大流行潜力的疾病的风险

IF 12.5 1区综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Science Advances Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI:10.1126/sciadv.adw6363

Angela Fanelli, Alessandro Cescatti, Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Gregoire Dubois, Dolores Ibarreta, Rachel Lowe, Nicola Riccetti, Marine Robuchon, Ilaria Capua, Wojtek Szewczyk, Emanuele Massaro

{"title":"在不断变化的世界中评估具有流行病和大流行潜力的疾病的风险","authors":"Angela Fanelli, Alessandro Cescatti, Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Gregoire Dubois, Dolores Ibarreta, Rachel Lowe, Nicola Riccetti, Marine Robuchon, Ilaria Capua, Wojtek Szewczyk, Emanuele Massaro","doi":"10.1126/sciadv.adw6363","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div >How do human activities contribute to the emergence of zoonotic diseases that can lead to epidemics and pandemics? Our analysis of common drivers of the World Health Organization’s priority diseases suggests that climate conditions, including higher temperatures, higher annual precipitation levels, and water deficits, elevate the risk of disease outbreaks. In addition, land-use changes, human encroachment on forested areas, increased population and livestock density, and biodiversity loss contribute to this risk, with biodiversity loss showing a complex and nonlinear relationship. This study also presents a global risk map and an epidemic risk index that combines countries’ specific risk with their capacities for preparing and responding to zoonotic threats.</div>","PeriodicalId":21609,"journal":{"name":"Science Advances","volume":"11 30","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.science.org/doi/reader/10.1126/sciadv.adw6363","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Assessing the risk of diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential in a changing world\",\"authors\":\"Angela Fanelli, Alessandro Cescatti, Juan-Carlos Ciscar, Gregoire Dubois, Dolores Ibarreta, Rachel Lowe, Nicola Riccetti, Marine Robuchon, Ilaria Capua, Wojtek Szewczyk, Emanuele Massaro\",\"doi\":\"10.1126/sciadv.adw6363\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div >How do human activities contribute to the emergence of zoonotic diseases that can lead to epidemics and pandemics? Our analysis of common drivers of the World Health Organization’s priority diseases suggests that climate conditions, including higher temperatures, higher annual precipitation levels, and water deficits, elevate the risk of disease outbreaks. In addition, land-use changes, human encroachment on forested areas, increased population and livestock density, and biodiversity loss contribute to this risk, with biodiversity loss showing a complex and nonlinear relationship. This study also presents a global risk map and an epidemic risk index that combines countries’ specific risk with their capacities for preparing and responding to zoonotic threats.</div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":21609,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Science Advances\",\"volume\":\"11 30\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":12.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-23\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.science.org/doi/reader/10.1126/sciadv.adw6363\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Science Advances\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"103\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adw6363\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"综合性期刊\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Science Advances","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adw6363","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

人类活动如何促成可导致流行病和大流行的人畜共患疾病的出现？我们对世界卫生组织重点疾病的共同驱动因素的分析表明，气候条件，包括较高的温度、较高的年降水量和缺水，增加了疾病爆发的风险。此外，土地利用变化、人类对林地的侵占、人口和牲畜密度的增加以及生物多样性的丧失都是造成这一风险的因素，生物多样性的丧失呈现出复杂的非线性关系。本研究还提出了全球风险地图和流行病风险指数，将各国的具体风险与其准备和应对人畜共患病威胁的能力结合起来。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Assessing the risk of diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential in a changing world

查看原文本刊更多论文

Assessing the risk of diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential in a changing world

How do human activities contribute to the emergence of zoonotic diseases that can lead to epidemics and pandemics? Our analysis of common drivers of the World Health Organization’s priority diseases suggests that climate conditions, including higher temperatures, higher annual precipitation levels, and water deficits, elevate the risk of disease outbreaks. In addition, land-use changes, human encroachment on forested areas, increased population and livestock density, and biodiversity loss contribute to this risk, with biodiversity loss showing a complex and nonlinear relationship. This study also presents a global risk map and an epidemic risk index that combines countries’ specific risk with their capacities for preparing and responding to zoonotic threats.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Science Advances 综合性期刊-综合性期刊

CiteScore

21.40

自引率

1.50%

发文量

1937

审稿时长

29 weeks

期刊介绍： Science Advances, an open-access journal by AAAS, publishes impactful research in diverse scientific areas. It aims for fair, fast, and expert peer review, providing freely accessible research to readers. Led by distinguished scientists, the journal supports AAAS's mission by extending Science magazine's capacity to identify and promote significant advances. Evolving digital publishing technologies play a crucial role in advancing AAAS's global mission for science communication and benefitting humankind.