Experimental evidence that people consider transgressors' exploitation risk when deciding to forgive

On an adaptationist view of forgiveness, people's decisions to forgive transgressors are coordinated by a psychological system that estimates (a) the likely benefits of a restored relationship with the transgressor (called relationship value) and (b) the risk that the transgressor will impose additional harm in the future (called exploitation risk). Correlational evidence supports these claims, but experimental evidence is limited. Here, we used a novel experimental manipulation of exploitation risk, along with well-established manipulations of post-transgression communication, to evaluate claims about the effects of exploitation risk on forgiveness. We also evaluated whether the effects of post-transgression gestures of apology-compensation and antagonistic messages on forgiveness result from their intermediate effects on perceived exploitation risk. The manipulations of exploitation risk and post-transgression messages influenced self-report measures and behavioral measures associated with forgiveness in theoretically expected directions, and a standard measurement-of-mediator approach suggested they operate via their intermediate effects on exploitation risk, but experimental tests provided only limited support for that claim. We conclude that exploitation risk does indeed deter forgiveness, but we will find little unambiguous causal evidence that antagonistic messages and expressions of apology-compensation exert their effects on forgiveness via their intermediate effects on perceived exploitation risk.