Strategic decision-making in wildfire risk management: Risk attitudes, strategy shifts, and policy implications in Taiwan

Wildfires pose escalating risks to ecosystems and societies under climate change. Despite its humid subtropical climate, Taiwan has experienced rising wildfire vulnerability, necessitating research into management strategies. This study examines Taiwan's wildfire response evolution and decision-making processes using two decades of response records (2004–2023) and discrete choice experiment (DCE) surveys. Our analysis revealed significant shifts towards Full Suppression (FS) strategies, characterized by increased personnel deployments per area burned and shortened containment times. Decision-making demonstrates prevailing risk-averse attitudes and non-linear probability weighting when confronting multi-attribute trade-offs. Taiwanese wildfire managers typically favor suppression strategies prioritizing stability and minimizing outcome variability, even when failing to maximize overall benefits. This behavior demonstrates disproportionate resource allocation toward mitigating highly salient, low-probability catastrophic events rather than optimizing overall risk-benefit outcomes. Despite these predispositions toward FS strategies, strategic adaptation potential exists, evidenced by reduced risk aversion in wilderness catchment areas and paramount concern for personnel safety (willingness-to-pay NT$1.69 million to prevent one casualty per 1000 wildfire events) compared to losses of environmental resource. This research provides crucial insights for wildfire management in Taiwan and analogous regions, highlighting opportunities for strategic adaptation under changing climate conditions, though sample representativeness and cross-regional generalizability warrant further investigation.