{"title":"变暖气候下预估的海面温度型变化和Madden-Julian涛动活动","authors":"Amanda F. M. Bowden, Eric D. Maloney","doi":"10.1029/2025GL115767","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) consists of a tropical convective region that propagates eastward through the Indo-Pacific warm pool. Decadal climate variability alters sea surface temperature patterns, affecting the MJO's basic state. This investigation examines the impact of projected SST and moisture pattern changes over the 21st Century on MJO precipitation and zonal wind amplitude changes in 80 members of the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble in the SSP370 radiative forcing scenario, each with its unique representation of decadal variability. Ensemble members with strongest MJO precipitation change in a given 20-year period have a more El Niño-like east Pacific warming pattern. MJO amplitude increases for east Pacific warming because of a strengthened meridional moisture gradient that supports MJO eastward propagation. A stronger vertical moisture gradient also exists for ensemble members with preferential east Pacific warming, which supports a stronger MJO under moisture mode theory.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL115767","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Projected Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Change and Madden-Julian Oscillation Activity in a Warmer Climate\",\"authors\":\"Amanda F. M. Bowden, Eric D. Maloney\",\"doi\":\"10.1029/2025GL115767\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) consists of a tropical convective region that propagates eastward through the Indo-Pacific warm pool. Decadal climate variability alters sea surface temperature patterns, affecting the MJO's basic state. This investigation examines the impact of projected SST and moisture pattern changes over the 21st Century on MJO precipitation and zonal wind amplitude changes in 80 members of the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble in the SSP370 radiative forcing scenario, each with its unique representation of decadal variability. Ensemble members with strongest MJO precipitation change in a given 20-year period have a more El Niño-like east Pacific warming pattern. MJO amplitude increases for east Pacific warming because of a strengthened meridional moisture gradient that supports MJO eastward propagation. A stronger vertical moisture gradient also exists for ensemble members with preferential east Pacific warming, which supports a stronger MJO under moisture mode theory.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12523,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Geophysical Research Letters\",\"volume\":\"52 14\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-21\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL115767\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Geophysical Research Letters\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL115767\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geophysical Research Letters","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL115767","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Projected Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Change and Madden-Julian Oscillation Activity in a Warmer Climate
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) consists of a tropical convective region that propagates eastward through the Indo-Pacific warm pool. Decadal climate variability alters sea surface temperature patterns, affecting the MJO's basic state. This investigation examines the impact of projected SST and moisture pattern changes over the 21st Century on MJO precipitation and zonal wind amplitude changes in 80 members of the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble in the SSP370 radiative forcing scenario, each with its unique representation of decadal variability. Ensemble members with strongest MJO precipitation change in a given 20-year period have a more El Niño-like east Pacific warming pattern. MJO amplitude increases for east Pacific warming because of a strengthened meridional moisture gradient that supports MJO eastward propagation. A stronger vertical moisture gradient also exists for ensemble members with preferential east Pacific warming, which supports a stronger MJO under moisture mode theory.
期刊介绍：
Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.
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