利用AIS轨迹数据揭示集装箱运输网络在中断事件中的适应性

IF 5.4 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY

Ocean & Coastal Management Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2025.107862

Zhangyuan He , Pengjun Zhao , Guangyu Huang , Zhaoxiang Li , Zhucheng Huang , Yingnan Niu , Caixia Zhang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

海事系统的适应性可以显著减轻全球事件造成的破坏。然而，缺乏系统的方法来测量海洋系统在这些事件下的适应性，特别是考虑到大多数事件仅具有局部影响。本文介绍了一种独特而系统的方法，利用2022年集装箱船的AIS轨迹数据（超过45亿个轨迹信号）来评估俄罗斯-乌克兰（RU）冲突期间全球集装箱航运网络的适应性。结果表明，在2022年3月至9月期间，RU冲突对全球集装箱航运网络的脆弱性、货运量分布和运营效率的影响为34% - 54%。在6月至9月期间，系统的适应性低于年平均水平，加上外部条件的恶化，最终导致俄罗斯冲突对航运网络的影响达到顶峰。随着适应能力的增强，集装箱航运网络在2022年9月之后达到了一个新的平衡阶段。此外，我们观察到不同阶段系统适应性对相关航线和港口拥堵的影响具有显著的空间异质性。本文提供了一个系统的框架来量化集装箱航运网络在中断事件中的适应性，有助于更深入地了解航运系统的脆弱性动态。这项研究对航运业具有实际意义，为未来如何更好地准备和应对类似事件提供了见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Unrevealing the adaptivity of container shipping network during disruption events by AIS trajectory data

The adaptivity of maritime systems can significantly mitigate the disruptions caused by global events. However, there is a lack of systematic methods to measure maritime system adaptivity under such events, especially given that most events have only localized impacts. This paper introduces a unique and systematic approach, utilizing AIS trajectory data from container ships in 2022 (over 4.5 billion trajectory signals) to assess the adaptivity of the global container shipping network during the Russia-Ukraine (RU) conflict. Results reveal that the RU conflict affected the vulnerability, freight volume distribution, and operational efficiency of the global container shipping network by 34 %–54 % between March and September 2022. Between June and September, the system's adaptivity was below the annual average, compounded by deteriorating external conditions, culminating in the peak impact of the RU conflict on the shipping network. With increasing adaptivity, the container shipping network achieved a new equilibrium phase post-September 2022. Moreover, we observe significant spatial heterogeneity in the impact of system adaptivity on congestion in relevant shipping routes and ports across different phases. This paper provides a systematic framework for quantifying the adaptivity of the container shipping network during disruption events, contributing to a deeper understanding of the vulnerability dynamics of the shipping system. This research has practical implications for the maritime industry, providing insights into how to better prepare for and respond to similar events in the future.

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来源期刊

Ocean & Coastal Management 环境科学-海洋学

CiteScore

8.50

自引率

15.20%

发文量

321

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Ocean & Coastal Management is the leading international journal dedicated to the study of all aspects of ocean and coastal management from the global to local levels. We publish rigorously peer-reviewed manuscripts from all disciplines, and inter-/trans-disciplinary and co-designed research, but all submissions must make clear the relevance to management and/or governance issues relevant to the sustainable development and conservation of oceans and coasts. Comparative studies (from sub-national to trans-national cases, and other management / policy arenas) are encouraged, as are studies that critically assess current management practices and governance approaches. Submissions involving robust analysis, development of theory, and improvement of management practice are especially welcome.