{"title":"评估波斯湾北部红树林气候和土地利用/土地覆盖变化对径流的影响","authors":"Sharif Joorabian Shooshtari , Reza Chamani","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104025","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mangrove forests are increasingly threatened by rapid Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes and climate variability. This study analyzes spatio-temporal dynamics of the Nayband mangrove forests in the northern Persian Gulf, Iran, for 1990, 2003, 2022, and a projected 2030, using a Markov chain and Multi-Layer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network. Additionally, maximum 24-h rainfall data (2003–2017) were analyzed using the Weibull method to estimate return periods of 2, 5, 10, 50, and 100 years. To assess climate change impacts, daily rainfall data from ACCESS-ESM1-5, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, and MRI-ESM2-0 models under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios were downscaled using the LARS-WG model. The Soil Conservation Service method estimated runoff height and volume under various climate change and LULC conditions. Under 2030 LULC projections relative to 2022, runoff volumes are expected to decline by 4.88 %, 3.15 %, 2.44 %, 1.09 %, and 0.96 % across the aforementioned return periods under SSP126. SSP245 shows smaller reductions of 1.51 %, 1.02 %, 0.78 %, 0.15 %, and 0.65 %. In contrast, the SSP585 scenario projects an increase in runoff volume, with corresponding rises of 16.28 %, 12.09 %, 21.32 %, 9.59 %, and 9.21 %. The analysis revealed that runoff variability was more significantly affected by climate change than by LULC change. Accordingly, the findings of this study provide a valuable foundation for shaping management strategies focused on the restoration and expansion of mangrove forests, while also supporting informed development planning within this predominantly industrial region, defined by petrochemical, oil, and gas operations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"140 ","pages":"Article 104025"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Assessing the effects of climate and land use/land cover changes on runoff in the Mangrove Forests of the Northern Persian Gulf\",\"authors\":\"Sharif Joorabian Shooshtari , Reza Chamani\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104025\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Mangrove forests are increasingly threatened by rapid Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes and climate variability. This study analyzes spatio-temporal dynamics of the Nayband mangrove forests in the northern Persian Gulf, Iran, for 1990, 2003, 2022, and a projected 2030, using a Markov chain and Multi-Layer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network. Additionally, maximum 24-h rainfall data (2003–2017) were analyzed using the Weibull method to estimate return periods of 2, 5, 10, 50, and 100 years. To assess climate change impacts, daily rainfall data from ACCESS-ESM1-5, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, and MRI-ESM2-0 models under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios were downscaled using the LARS-WG model. The Soil Conservation Service method estimated runoff height and volume under various climate change and LULC conditions. Under 2030 LULC projections relative to 2022, runoff volumes are expected to decline by 4.88 %, 3.15 %, 2.44 %, 1.09 %, and 0.96 % across the aforementioned return periods under SSP126. SSP245 shows smaller reductions of 1.51 %, 1.02 %, 0.78 %, 0.15 %, and 0.65 %. In contrast, the SSP585 scenario projects an increase in runoff volume, with corresponding rises of 16.28 %, 12.09 %, 21.32 %, 9.59 %, and 9.21 %. The analysis revealed that runoff variability was more significantly affected by climate change than by LULC change. Accordingly, the findings of this study provide a valuable foundation for shaping management strategies focused on the restoration and expansion of mangrove forests, while also supporting informed development planning within this predominantly industrial region, defined by petrochemical, oil, and gas operations.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":54616,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth\",\"volume\":\"140 \",\"pages\":\"Article 104025\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-17\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1474706525001755\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1474706525001755","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Assessing the effects of climate and land use/land cover changes on runoff in the Mangrove Forests of the Northern Persian Gulf
Mangrove forests are increasingly threatened by rapid Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes and climate variability. This study analyzes spatio-temporal dynamics of the Nayband mangrove forests in the northern Persian Gulf, Iran, for 1990, 2003, 2022, and a projected 2030, using a Markov chain and Multi-Layer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network. Additionally, maximum 24-h rainfall data (2003–2017) were analyzed using the Weibull method to estimate return periods of 2, 5, 10, 50, and 100 years. To assess climate change impacts, daily rainfall data from ACCESS-ESM1-5, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, and MRI-ESM2-0 models under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios were downscaled using the LARS-WG model. The Soil Conservation Service method estimated runoff height and volume under various climate change and LULC conditions. Under 2030 LULC projections relative to 2022, runoff volumes are expected to decline by 4.88 %, 3.15 %, 2.44 %, 1.09 %, and 0.96 % across the aforementioned return periods under SSP126. SSP245 shows smaller reductions of 1.51 %, 1.02 %, 0.78 %, 0.15 %, and 0.65 %. In contrast, the SSP585 scenario projects an increase in runoff volume, with corresponding rises of 16.28 %, 12.09 %, 21.32 %, 9.59 %, and 9.21 %. The analysis revealed that runoff variability was more significantly affected by climate change than by LULC change. Accordingly, the findings of this study provide a valuable foundation for shaping management strategies focused on the restoration and expansion of mangrove forests, while also supporting informed development planning within this predominantly industrial region, defined by petrochemical, oil, and gas operations.
期刊介绍:
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth is an international interdisciplinary journal for the rapid publication of collections of refereed communications in separate thematic issues, either stemming from scientific meetings, or, especially compiled for the occasion. There is no restriction on the length of articles published in the journal. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth incorporates the separate Parts A, B and C which existed until the end of 2001.
Please note: the Editors are unable to consider submissions that are not invited or linked to a thematic issue. Please do not submit unsolicited papers.
The journal covers the following subject areas:
-Solid Earth and Geodesy:
(geology, geochemistry, tectonophysics, seismology, volcanology, palaeomagnetism and rock magnetism, electromagnetism and potential fields, marine and environmental geosciences as well as geodesy).
-Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere:
(hydrology and water resources research, engineering and management, oceanography and oceanic chemistry, shelf, sea, lake and river sciences, meteorology and atmospheric sciences incl. chemistry as well as climatology and glaciology).
-Solar-Terrestrial and Planetary Science:
(solar, heliospheric and solar-planetary sciences, geology, geophysics and atmospheric sciences of planets, satellites and small bodies as well as cosmochemistry and exobiology).